To be honest, you could tell how A-shares would end up the moment the market opened today.

As soon as the morning session started, the white line on the intraday chart was pressed below the yellow line—a clear signal: once again, the index is barely holding up while individual stocks are all in the red. Sure enough, over 4,000 stocks started dropping right out of the gate. How am I supposed to trade in this kind of market? I just can’t muster up any enthusiasm, so I can only watch from the sidelines. That said, don’t get too pessimistic—just keep your eye on one key risk point.

**Opening Highs? Market Sentiment Instantly Freezes**

The mood was off from the very beginning today. The main index was being propped up, but thematic stocks were struggling—this kind of divergence is the worst. With more than 4,000 stocks falling after the open, it’s clear that market sentiment is still terrible.

I know many people are hoping for a stop to the drop and a rebound, but don’t get your hopes up. If sentiment is this cold at the open, it’s basically “open equals close.” Even if a few sectors occasionally spike during the session, it won’t change the overall downward trend. No matter how good structural opportunities are, they can’t withstand the drag from the broader environment.

**December Is Destined to Be Rough—Watch More, Trade Less**

I’ve always said: December’s market is here to grind you down, so don’t expect any surprises. Tough, dull, and sluggish—that’s the reality. So the strategy is simple: control your position sizes and mostly watch from the sidelines.

Wait for that turning point when market sentiment truly hits rock bottom. If there’s another sharp drop at these levels, those who still have positions could consider bargain hunting for a rebound. But if it’s just weak oscillation and the index is barely moving, don’t bother trading aimlessly. Only when there are big swings in the index does buying the dip actually make sense.

**Key Reminder: Beware of Micro-Cap Stocks**

Here’s an important reminder for all retail investors—make sure to watch out for risks in micro-cap stocks going forward.

The micro-cap index has been hitting new highs all year, and it looks impressive. But remember, at the end of every year and the beginning of the next, micro-caps always face liquidity shocks. Most micro-cap stocks are essentially driven up by quant funds, and once liquidity tightens at year-end, the risk becomes immediately apparent. It’s best to stay away from these stocks for now.

**Today’s Market Prediction: Not Many Opportunities, But Don’t Panic Sell**

A few quick thoughts on today’s action:

First, sentiment at the open has already frozen over, so there won’t be many opportunities. If you’re deeply stuck in losing positions, don’t cut your losses here; but if you just chased a high-flying stock, make sure you have stop-losses in place.

Second, looking at sector performance, today’s leaders are lithium mining and robotics. Why? U.S. robotics stocks soared last night, and Trump made comments about boosting robotics. Right now, A-shares have no independent thinking—all they do is chase news headlines or follow whatever U.S. stocks are rising.

That’s why retail investors find this market so tough. There’s no main theme, so chasing up or down can easily get you trapped. Instead of blindly chasing every day, focus on sectors or stocks you’re familiar with—buy the dip for a rebound and cash out quickly after the bounce. Don’t think about making long-term strategic moves; now is not the time.

**The Index Isn’t Bearish, But the Market Is a Grind**

Overall, I’m not pessimistic about the index at these levels—there’s not much downside left. But the market is a grind—big money is already on holiday for the year-end, and all you have left are speculative and quant funds making noise. Every day there are post-market announcements of major shareholders cutting their stakes, and that slowly eats away at market confidence.

These risks need to be gradually released throughout December before we might see a spring rally. If your timing is off, it’s very easy to lose money during this phase.

**Brokers Still the "Firefighters"**

Today, hopes for the index and market sentiment probably have to rest on the brokerage sector again. While you might not be able to recover losses or make money with brokerages, every time sentiment hits rock bottom, brokers are needed to lift the mood.

Brokerages are just a tool right now—after a sentiment freeze, they rally to help the market through the most dangerous stage, and then they go quiet again. So, I’m short-term bullish on brokerages as a turning point, but I don’t think they have the ability to sustain a rebound.

The real opportunity lies in this: take advantage of the brokerage rally and the slight sentiment recovery to look for rises in other themes. That’s where your bets should be placed.