The US employment data for November looks almost surreal.



On the corporate layoffs front, the numbers are shockingly high—the Challenger report shows that 153,000 people were laid off in a single month, with the annual layoff rate soaring to 175.3%, and the monthly rate is even more staggering at 183%. What does that mean? Basically, the number of people laid off this month is almost three times that of last month. Companies are cutting costs at lightning speed.

But strangely, the unemployment data still looks "okay." For the week ending November 29, the number of initial jobless claims was 216,000, slightly below the market expectation of 220,000. The four-week moving average did rise to 223,750, but the number of continuing jobless claims (for the week ending November 22) was 1.96 million, basically in line with the expected 1.961 million.

What does this indicate? Are those who got laid off finding new jobs quickly? Or is there a lag in data transmission?

Looking at a few other indicators: the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index dropped to -0.06 in November, which does show that supply chain pressures are easing; EIA natural gas inventories decreased by 1.1 billion cubic feet, but that's lower than the expected 1.8 billion, so energy demand doesn't seem too strong.

Right now, the market is focused on one question: there’s a wave of layoffs, but unemployment data is holding steady—is the labor market still resilient, or has the bad news just not fully shown up yet?

The next few months of employment reports will likely be even more critical.
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ForkInTheRoadvip
· 12-07 01:09
The data is conflicting—layoffs are aggressive, but unemployment figures are still pretty stable... Feels like things are about to change, companies are sharpening their knives too quickly.
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MoonRocketTeamvip
· 12-06 23:57
A 175% layoff annual rate? That number is as outrageous as a booster burning through! It's bizarre that unemployment claims are still so steady—did all the laid-off people just shoot straight to the moon?
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InfraVibesvip
· 12-04 07:54
Wave of resignations and unemployment rate data contradict each other? Feels like watching an economic magic show. Can someone decode this for me?
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SchrodingerGasvip
· 12-04 07:53
Game equilibrium under the assumption of data latency—the information asymmetry between unemployment claims and actual layoffs is so interesting. It's like the mapping between on-chain snapshots and interaction costs—the real situation may have already been reflected off-chain, but the observation window hasn't caught up yet. The bad news is already on its way.
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POAPlectionistvip
· 12-04 07:52
150,000 layoffs at a 183% monthly rate? This data is outrageous... But unemployment claims have actually decreased? Feels like the calm before the storm.
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ImaginaryWhalevip
· 12-04 07:40
Wait, 150,000 people were laid off but the unemployment rate didn’t go up? Is this data delayed?
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GateUser-5854de8bvip
· 12-04 07:33
These numbers don’t add up. 150,000 people were laid off, but the unemployment rate hasn’t really moved. Either people are finding jobs incredibly fast, or the worst is yet to come.
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