#美联储货币政策走向 Looking back at the evolution of monetary policy over the years, the increasing internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are indeed thought-provoking. Historically, the formulation of monetary policy has always required balancing multiple interests, but now this internal consensus mechanism seems to be at risk of unraveling.

There was a time when the Chair of the Federal Reserve could leverage personal prestige and policy communication skills to achieve broad consensus on key decisions. However, the current situation inevitably brings to mind the turbulent period of the 1970s, when severe inflation and economic recession led policymakers into conflict and debate.

It now appears likely that the December meeting will see an unusually high number of dissenting votes. Such internal division could not only impact the short-term direction of policy, but may also become the norm for monetary policy formulation in the coming years. In the long run, the implications for financial markets should not be underestimated.

Thinking back to the period of unconventional monetary policy after the 2008 financial crisis, there were disagreements back then as well, but consensus was ultimately reached under the Chair’s guidance. The situation today is more complex, with political factors adding even more uncertainty to decision-making.

For those of us who follow the markets long term, these changes mean we’ll need to pay closer attention to the internal dynamics of the Fed, not just the statements of the Chair. At the same time, we must also be wary of the risks that political interference may bring, because history has shown that the loss of central bank independence often leads to greater economic volatility.

In this period full of uncertainty, it is especially important to remain calm and rational. We should learn lessons from history, respond cautiously to potential policy swings, and be prepared for all possible scenarios. After all, the market is always moving forward through constant change, and our job is to find opportunities amid that change.