#比特币对比代币化黄金 USDT to RMB exchange rate breaks through the 7.0 threshold! This rare phenomenon has sparked heated discussions in the market. Some are exclaiming that stablecoins are collapsing, but what’s more noteworthy is that while the price of USDT is declining, mainstream crypto assets are actually rising. What kind of market logic is hidden behind this divergence?

Two clues are worth noting:

First, expectations for a shift in US monetary policy are heating up. The current market expects nearly a 90% probability that the Fed will cut rates next year, with some institutions even predicting an aggressive 50 basis point cut. Once dollar liquidity loosens, the global capital allocation landscape will inevitably adjust, and crypto assets, as alternative investments, will become significantly more attractive.

Second, regulatory measures targeting cross-border stablecoin flows are tightening. Large amounts of previously hedged USDT have been released into the market, causing a short-term surge in supply and putting pressure on the exchange rate. But from another perspective, this clearing process actually indicates that the market environment is being optimized and non-compliant capital channels are being purified.

Why is it that as stablecoins depreciate, cryptocurrencies are strengthening instead?

The core lies in the shift of capital flows. When the US dollar system faces expectations of looser liquidity, international capital seeks new stores of value. History shows that phase fluctuations in the USDT exchange rate often correspond to turning points in the market cycle—this is not necessarily a risk signal, but could actually be a window of opportunity.

Market participants are reacting in notably different ways:

Some investors feel confused, worried about the stability of stablecoins. Other, more experienced participants remain calm, viewing this as a typical cyclical phenomenon. Some have already taken action: exchanging USDT below 7.0, waiting for it to rise above 7.5 to exchange back, theoretically capturing an arbitrage spread of over 10%.

Cognitive differences themselves are a source of market opportunity. While most people are still trying to understand what’s happening, capital has already begun to reallocate.

Faced with the current situation, will you choose to increase your holdings at a low point, or opt to wait and see for safety? Different judgments will bring completely different results. The market never waits for the hesitant; turning points in trends are often hidden in these seemingly chaotic signals.