#特朗普数字资产政策新方向 Wall Street recently released a data point that directly relates to where $BTC is headed next.

The main character is that publicly listed company, Strategy, known for aggressively hoarding Bitcoin. JPMorgan crunched the numbers: as long as the company's market cap divided by the value of its Bitcoin holdings stays above 1, it won't be forced to sell off its coins at a loss. Right now, that number is 1.13.

Barely above the pass line.

Why does this matter? The largest public Bitcoin-holding institution in the market is, for now, not under selling pressure. That gives the market some peace of mind. With recent price swings and ongoing fears of whale sell-offs weighing on sentiment, this particular threat is off the table in the short term.

But don’t celebrate just yet. Over the past three months, Strategy’s stock price has been cut in half, and its pace of Bitcoin purchases has dropped off a cliff—over 90% slower than before. Even players of this caliber are sitting on the sidelines, which means the entire market is still bottoming out. As long as they're stable, sentiment has a chance to slowly recover.

What should people at different stages do? If you’re new, don’t rush in; understanding the rules is more important than anything, and holding onto cash is king. Experienced players should realize this is only a signal that the downtrend is slowing, not the start of a bull run. Those with heavy positions can take the chance to adjust their portfolios, while those with light positions can research targets and draft a phased-in plan—but don’t go all in.

Bottom line: the market is moving from panic selling to a weak balance. That 1.13 ratio is more like a starting point for sentiment recovery. Systemic risk is lower, but a bull market? Still a long way off. Keep it simple, use spare funds for long-term positioning—that’s the most practical approach right now.