#美联储降息预期 Looking back at history, every time the Federal Reserve was expected to cut rates, it triggered significant market volatility. Now, HSBC's viewpoint has once again brought back memories of the past. They believe now is a good time to increase exposure to risk assets, which inevitably reminds me of the days following the 2008 financial crisis.

At that time, the market was also in a slump, and investor sentiment was battered. But as the Fed adopted quantitative easing policies, the market gradually recovered. The current situation bears some resemblance to those days: the S&P 500 index is not far from its all-time high, but market sentiment has noticeably declined; the spread for high-yield bonds has only widened slightly, and the spread for emerging market bonds is even narrowing.

This contradictory market performance reminds me of the eve before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. At that time, tech stocks soared while traditional sectors lagged. Now, we seem to be witnessing a similar divergence.

However, HSBC's analysis also reminds us to pay attention to some new indicators. The VIX futures curve is showing a spot premium, which is rare in history. It reflects that short-term market uncertainty is higher than long-term, which may signal a wave of sharp volatility is about to arrive.

From historical experience, it is especially important to remain calm and rational at such times. Every bull and bear cycle in the past has taught us one lesson: the market always breeds hope in despair and heads toward collapse in euphoria.

If the Federal Reserve really does start cutting rates in December, then the market trend that follows is likely to repeat history. But we must also be cautious—history never simply repeats itself. When making investment decisions, we need to draw on past experience while also fully considering the unique current environment. After all, every crisis and opportunity has its own particularities.