2026? I’ve got my eyes on that year. Right now, three major burdens are weighing down the US economy—any one of them collapsing would be a huge blow.

Let’s start with the oldest ticking time bomb—the national debt. From $1 trillion in 1981, it's now ballooned to $39 trillion. Back when the numbers were smaller, the system could withstand interest rates soaring to 14%. But now? The 30-year Treasury yield is only 4%, yet annual interest payments alone are $1.2 trillion—more than military spending and now the government’s second largest expense. How does this add up?

Real estate is even wilder. Everyone’s focused on AI and government debt, but nobody’s noticed that housing prices have already exploded. By the end of 2024, total US real estate value surged to $50 trillion—the peak of the 2006 bubble was just $23.8 trillion. Now, real estate makes up 28% of household assets, up from 23% in 2008. According to traditional standards, putting 30% of your income toward your mortgage is considered healthy, but with current home prices, you’d need to earn 50% more than the median income to even consider buying. If this isn’t a bubble, what is?

The third bomb is the freshest—AI mania. Let’s quantify it with the Wicksellian spread: a zero spread means resources are allocated efficiently, a positive spread means borrowing is too cheap and investment overheated, and a negative spread is the opposite. Since 2008, borrowing costs in the US have been too low for too long, and now with the AI frenzy on top, the Wicksellian capital misallocation as a share of GDP has soared to over 60%. That’s higher than right before the 2008 financial crisis.

Three bubbles are live at the same time—which one will pop first? I’m betting 2026 will be eventful. Nobody can say exactly when, but the structure is already in place—it’s just a matter of seeing which gives out first.