#数字货币市场洞察 The crypto market movements in December are not random fluctuations, but are deeply influenced by three key time points—each event may trigger significant price swings.

First, let's look at the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on December 11. Currently, the market expects an 87% probability of a rate cut, indicating that a liquidity easing policy is highly likely to materialize. Historical experience shows that whenever the Fed signals easing, mainstream assets like BTC and ETH often attract capital inflows. The outcome of this meeting is worth close attention.

Next is the Bank of Japan's policy meeting on December 19. If the BOJ opts to raise rates, global capital flows may shift—some dollar assets could flow back to the yen market, which poses a potential short-term pressure point for cryptocurrencies. However, from another perspective, this could also create a window for opportunistic buying at lower levels.

Finally, December 26 marks a major Bitcoin options expiry date. Options with a notional value of as much as $23 billion will be settled, and this scale of capital contest usually causes sharp volatility around the expiry. According to the current options open interest distribution, $100,000 has become an important psychological threshold, while a large number of put options are clustered around $84,000, forming a clear support zone.

Overall, December’s price action may see repeated swings within the $84,000–$100,000 range. The Fed decision might first bring a wave of upward momentum, followed by a possible pullback triggered by BOJ policy, while the year-end options settlement will set the overall tone for the month.

For traders, it’s crucial to time these three events well. Consider accumulating positions in batches near $84,000 on pullbacks, take some profit and reduce positions as prices approach $100,000, and operate flexibly in the intermediate range. The market always rewards those who are prepared.