Back in mid-September last year, the Fed kicked off its cutting cycle with a bold 50 basis point slash, dropping rates from 5.5% down to 5.0%. That was the signal everyone had been waiting for.

But here's where it gets interesting. Since that September 18th move, the bond market hasn't exactly played along with the script. Short-term yields? They've cooperated—1-year bonds dipped from 3.98% to 3.59%. Makes sense when rates are falling.

The longer end though? Completely different story. 10-year yields climbed from 3.71% all the way to 4.15%. And the 30-year? Shot up from 4.03% to a hefty 4.80%. That's a massive steepening of the curve, and it's telling us something about what the market actually expects for inflation and growth ahead.

So while the Fed's been cutting, long-term rates have been rising. Classic divergence. This matters for everything from mortgage rates to how capital flows into risk assets.