The battle for the Fed chairmanship has become intensely heated, with two Kevin contenders vying for the position, capturing the nerves of the entire crypto market—one is the aggressive rate-cutting advocate promoted by Trump, and the other is the independent camp trusted by Wall Street. This political and financial contest essentially determines the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve, which directly impacts the rise and fall of cryptocurrency prices.

Last week, Trump dropped a bombshell in an interview, claiming that Kevin Hasset, Chair of the White House National Economic Council, and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, are both core candidates. Even more astonishing, he openly called for aggressive rate cuts to 1% or even lower, and demanded that the next Fed Chair negotiate rate policies with him. This is tantamount to directly challenging the Fed’s decades-old tradition of independence, prompting a strong market reaction.

The plot took a bit of a turn. Trump had previously hinted multiple times that the candidate was already decided, but this time he said the process is still ongoing. He had just met with Warsh on the 10th, and Warsh’s comment that “borrowing costs should be lower” hit a nerve with Trump. As a longtime associate of Trump for nearly a decade, Hasset was originally the top favorite, with a probability of winning soaring to 56% according to some prediction platforms. However, Wall Street collectively sounded the alarm—bond market executives worry that if Warsh takes office, he might wildly cater to Trump and use aggressive easing policies to undermine the Fed’s independence. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon even publicly supported Warsh and warned of the unimaginable consequences of undermining the Fed’s independence.

While Warsh has gained recognition on Wall Street, his shortcomings are also obvious. Since leaving the Fed, he has frequently made comments, raising doubts about his stability in the market. The performance of related assets like $TNSR ultimately depends on whether the Fed’s choice leans toward easing or maintaining the status quo.