Currently, the trend is more like "taking a deep breath and preparing to act." Only when the 3180-3200 level remains stable will this correction become a step toward better growth. The current price fluctuates around 3215. It is recommended to "watch more and move less," observing whether long lower shadows appear on the 4-hour candlestick chart.

There are two possible forecasts:
First possibility: retest and break through ( probability 60%)
Price remains in the 3180-3200 range ( this is an important support level on the 4-hour chart ). After 8-12 hours of consolidation and exhaustion of MACD energy on the 1-hour chart, it may reach the target range of 3300-3350 again.
Second possibility: deep correction ( probability 40%)
If Bitcoin and ETH start to plummet sharply, and ETH breaks through the 3180 level, the market may enter a deep correction phase, with prices possibly returning to pre-break levels, around 3120-3150. At this time, the consolidation period may last 2-3 days.
Key indicators:
- Ultra-short-term (15 minutes / 1 hour ): Bearish trend prevails, looking for a bottom. At these levels, prices have broken through all moving averages ( MA5, 10, 21 ), indicating a downward trend.
- MACD: Diverging from the zero line, indicating selling pressure remains.
- WR: In the oversold zone below -80, showing short-term rebound potential, but this rebound is more likely a "technical rebound" rather than a trend reversal.
Mid-term (4 hours ): key point ( testing support )
The 4-hour chart is critical for analysis, with the price at about the MA21 ( around 3199-3200 ). In an upward trend, MA21 is the "lifeline." If it reduces positions here and breaks through it, it may indicate the end of a rebound from around 2900 levels.
KDJ indicator: forming a death cross at high levels, quickly downward, hinting at a potential bottom test.
Long-term (daily chart ): bull market structure intact, clear signs of correction
The daily chart remains strong, with MACD showing a golden cross and increasing histogram bars. The range from 3307 to 3210 is just a long shadow on the candles, a normal correction after an upward move, aiming to clear profit positions and leverage before reaching the 3000 level.
Entry strategy:
❤️Long entry:
Currently, ETH on the 4-hour chart is at about MA21 ( around 3199.55 ), which is the "lifeline." To achieve a strong rise, this level carries higher risk and is a short-term high-risk entry point.
• Entry zone (Long ): 3200 - 3210
• Reason: This is the support level of the 4-hour moving average, also a psychological threshold.
• Small stop loss: 3175
• Reason: The previous lows on the 15-minute and 1-hour charts are around 3182. Setting the stop loss at 3175 can avoid "bait" false breakouts. If the price breaks this level, the trend will reverse, and you should exit.
• Risk management: stop loss of about 30-35 points ( about 1%), a standard small stop loss.
• Target levels:
• First target: 3260 - 3280 ( to recover previous declines and resistance on the 1-hour chart ).
• Second target: 3300 - 3310 ( previous high, higher targets after breakthrough ).
Market change analysis
If the price breaks through the 3180 level and the candle body closes below (, it is recommended to immediately close long positions. The next strong support is between 3120-3140, with a gap between these two levels.
❤️Short entry:
Option 1: rebound trading ) break stop loss (
When the price returns to resistance and upward momentum weakens, this plan applies.
• Entry zone: 3255 - 3275
• Reason: This is the resistance zone on the 1-hour chart. If the price rebounds here but the 15-minute MACD forms divergence, the rebound will end.
• Small stop loss: 3315
• Reason: The previous high is around 3307. If the price breaks through and stabilizes above 3315, the bull market will return, and short positions should be closed.
• Target levels: first target at 3180, second at 3120.
Option 2: break support ) trend reversal (
When support is broken and the trend turns bearish, this plan applies.
• Entry zone: 3175 - 3185 ) short after breakout (
• Reason: The MA21 support on the 4-hour chart is around 3200, and the previous low is at 3182. If the price closes below 3180, the trend will reverse, and downside space opens.
• Small stop loss: 3225
• Reason: If the price rebounds above 3220, it may be a false breakout, requiring observation.
• Target levels: 3120 - 3100, targeting integer levels.
Since the 4-hour MACD has not fully deteriorated, it is recommended to observe the support at 3200 ) first.