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I have been conducting my own daily observations of Bitcoin's price since early 2026, and the data from January 1 to 8 form a comprehensive picture of the year's start for this asset. Over eight days, BTC's price increased from $87 860.7 to $90 077.1 USD, indicating a positive, albeit unstable, initial momentum. In the early days of the year, the market demonstrated high sensitivity to supply and demand. Such fluctuations are typical for the rebalancing period after the end of the fiscal year. It is important to note that the growth was not linear and was accompanied by sharp deviations, indicating active participation from both investors and short-term speculators.

A particular focus in my notes was January 6, when within a single day, the price ranged from $91 349.0 to $93 971.9 USD. This intraday range indicates increased volatility and significant trading volumes. Essentially, the market attempted to hold above $94 000 USD, but this proved short-lived. The subsequent return to lower levels suggests profit-taking by some participants. The absence of a sharp crash indicates maintained confidence in the asset. This suggests that the market is not in a reversal phase but in a phase of testing boundaries.

Analyzing the overall dynamics, it can be said that the $88 000 – $90 000 USD zone serves as a key support level. It is in this area that the price repeatedly stabilized after declines. Starting from January 3, values around $90 000 USD were recorded several times, reinforcing their significance. This indicates persistent demand at these levels. From an analytical perspective, such behavior is characteristic of an accumulation phase. Under similar conditions, the market often prepares for a more defined move in the medium term.

Summarizing my observations, I highlight several key characteristics of the current market state:
1) The average price for the period exceeds the beginning-of-year level.
2) The highs remain elevated even after corrections.
3) Declines are limited and quickly bought back.
4) Volatility is concentrated within one or two trading days.
5) The market demonstrates a balance between caution and growth expectations. These features collectively form a neutral-positive background but do not justify unequivocally optimistic conclusions.

From a risk perspective, the current situation is a phase of increased uncertainty. High prices themselves increase market sensitivity to external factors. Any significant news could trigger impulsive movements in either direction. For market participants, this means the need for prudent decisions and risk management. The absence of panic selling after local peaks is a positive signal, indicating that most participants do not see the current levels as critically overheated.

Forecasting Bitcoin's movement for the next week, I consider several basic scenarios:
1. Consolidation within the $89 000 – $92 000 USD range with a gradual decrease in volatility.
2. A repeated attempt to rise to the $94 000 – $95 000 USD zone if buyers become more active.
3. A corrective move to levels of $87 000 – $88 000 USD without breaking the overall structure.
4. A sharp impulsive move in response to an external factor. In my opinion, the first two scenarios seem somewhat more probable, but none has an absolute advantage.

The start of the year sets expectations but does not always determine the long-term direction. In my notes, I see a market in a state of internal balance but not yet making a final choice. High price levels are combined with cautious participant behavior, characteristic of a mature market phase where decisions are made strategically rather than emotionally. This state could persist longer than expected. That is why short-term forecasts are conditional.

In summary, I believe that Bitcoin enters 2026 in a strong but complex position. My daily notes reflect a combination of stability and tension. The market shows readiness for further movement but requires additional signals. The coming days could be decisive in forming a short-term trend. The overall structure remains constructive, allowing for a cautiously positive outlook with increased attention to risks.

P.S. This material is purely informational and analytical and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice.

Glossary:
• Volatility — a measure of the intensity of price fluctuations of an asset over a certain period.
• Correction — a temporary price movement against the main trend after an increase or decrease.
• Support level — a price zone where demand usually exceeds supply and halts declines.
• Consolidation — a period of sideways price movement within a limited range.
• Profit-taking — selling an asset to lock in gains.
• Impulsive movement — a sharp and rapid change in price over a short period.
• Accumulation phase — a period when an asset is gradually bought up without a sharp price increase.

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