#GateSquareCreatorNewYearIncentives Market Outlook 2026: From "Risk Clearing" to Bullish Recovery

Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat, recently shared a comprehensive outlook for 2026. While long-term sentiment remains extremely bullish—with a $1 million price target for Bitcoin—the first half of 2026 is expected to be a "trader’s market" defined by high volatility.
1. The "Risk Clearing Event" (H1 2026)
Farrell predicts a significant "risk clearing event" in the first half of the year. This correction is viewed as a healthy deleveraging process rather than a trend reversal.
Bitcoin (BTC): Could drop to the $60,000 – $65,000 range. This is identified as a "deep value zone" and a prime "buy the dip" opportunity.
Catalysts for Recovery: Liquidity improvements, global policy stimulus, and AI-driven growth are expected to fuel a strong rebound in the second half of the year.
2. Ethereum (ETH): The "Small-Cap Tech" Play
Traditional asset managers are increasingly viewing Ethereum through the lens of a high-growth tech stock.
The RWA Narrative: ETH is the primary beneficiary of Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization. With RWA growth hitting 145% YoY in Q3 2025, more high-quality assets are entering DeFi, enhancing ETH's value capture.
Price Target: Farrell sets a year-end target of approximately $4,500, though he warns of a potential dip to $1,800 – $2,000 during the H1 volatility.