## 📈 Market Analysis

Over the **past 3 days**, Bitcoin has fluctuated between **89,309.30 and 93,748.00 USDT**, with a cumulative daily decline of **0.76%** and a volatility of **4.9%**. The technical RSI dropped to **5.3**, showing severe short-term oversold and price close to 89,309.30 (3-day low), indicating potential for a rebound. Trading volume has sharply contracted, and the rise in price with lower volume reflects notably weakened momentum—watch for a recovery in volume.

## 📄 News Focus

- **VanEck projects BTC could hit $53.4 million by 2050**, with the asset manager arguing that if “hyperbitcoinization” takes place, a 29% annual compound growth rate over 25 years could push prices to astronomical levels, reinforcing long-term value consensus;
- **Cathie Wood: US government may directly buy Bitcoin**. The ARK Invest founder highlighted that the US could purchase BTC for strategic reserves, increasing its role at the national level;
- **Major market correction and institutional division**. In Q4 2025, crypto market cap dropped by $1 trillion, ETF funds recorded outflows, stablecoins gained in share, and a “distribution” phase dominated the market;
- **Trump supports exemption of small BTC capital gains tax**, which could lower the compliance threshold for daily use, though volatility and opportunity costs remain obstacles.

 

Signals from major institutions and policy makers strengthen the long-term outlook, but short-term sentiment remains divided and cautious.

## 🧐 Market Sentiment

- Overall crypto market sentiment is **fearful** (**Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 27**), and risk appetite is low.
- KOLs are split: about **210** are bullish, **116** are bearish, with mainstream views remaining cautious.
- Social media chatter is increasing, focusing on institutional buying and policy tailwinds, but worries about miner stress and capital outflows persist.

## ✨ Key Points to Watch

- **Whether volume recovers**: Key to sustaining any rebound; if volumes stay low, upward momentum will be limited;
- **Changes in on-chain flows**: Large BTC movements and miner activity can shift market confidence if outflows escalate;
- **Trends in macro policy**: Fed rate cut expectations, regulation, and state BTC reserves are vital market drivers;
- **Whether institutions keep buying or selling**: ETF flows and institutional strategies continue to shape price trends;
- **If sentiment coalesces or remains divided**: Consensus shifts among bulls and bears often signal major market turns.

 

Overall, with short-term oversold signals, a rebound is possible, but weak sentiment and volume mean that policy and funding trends will be decisive ahead.
$BTC $BTC ‌