Let's talk about the real situation of UNI#UNI #山寨币

The actual circulating supply and market selling pressure issues
UNI's supply and demand structure is indeed the core contradiction that determines its short-term price performance. Below, I will combine experiences from three bull-bear cycles to analyze the true situation and future direction of UNI.
• Daily new supply (from treasury expenditures) approximately 50,000 UNI, valued at (based on $5.5) about $275,000, with a net daily supply change of approximately +30,000 UNI;
• Daily burn amount (from protocol fees) 16,000 - 20,000 UNI, valued at (based on $5.5) about $88,000 - $110,000, with a net daily supply change of approximately +165,000 USD.

Deep analysis behind the data
The short-term reality is inevitably "under pressure," but this is only one side of the story. The other side is a fundamental transformation in the UNI token economic model.
1. From "Governance Points" to "Value Assets"
Before the "UNIfication" proposal passed at the end of 2025, UNI was mainly a governance tool with weak value capture ability. But the passing of this proposal was a watershed event. It not only burned 100 million UNI tokens (reducing the total supply from 1 billion to about 730 million, creating significant scarcity at once), but more importantly, it initiated a continuous burn mechanism linked to protocol revenue. Now, some transaction fees generated by versions like Uniswap V2, V3 are used to buy back and burn UNI tokens on the open market. This means that the usage (trading volume) of the Uniswap protocol will be directly linked to the scarcity of UNI, forming a "usage-driven deflation" model. The more trading volume and revenue the protocol has, the more UNI is burned, shifting its value basis from "governance rights" to "protocol fee equity."
2. Supply and demand dynamics are dynamic, not static
The above data are based on current static figures, but key variables will change:
• Burn volume will increase: current daily burn is based on current protocol revenue. If the next bull market arrives and on-chain trading activity surges, daily burn could catch up with or even surpass treasury expenditures, turning UNI into a net deflationary asset.
• Treasury expenditures are not eternal: Treasury spending has an upper limit. While it’s unrealistic to completely burn the treasury, ongoing expenditure pressures will also prompt the community to consider more sustainable treasury management solutions.

1. Market position and competitive landscape
Understanding UNI’s potential requires clarity on its competitive environment.
• Strong leadership position: Uniswap has long been the leader in decentralized exchanges (DEX), with deep liquidity, a large user base, and strong brand recognition. Its monthly trading volume reaches hundreds of billions of dollars, far surpassing other DEX competitors.
• Expansion and technological iteration: The protocol continues to evolve, such as V3 introducing "concentrated liquidity" to greatly improve capital efficiency, and actively expanding to Layer2 networks like Arbitrum and Optimism to reduce user transaction costs. Future V4 is expected to enable developers to create more complex, customized trading pools through features like "Hooks," further strengthening its technological moat.
However, challenges remain, including competition from other DEXs and ongoing global regulatory uncertainties.

2. Scenario analysis of future prospects
Based on the above fundamentals, the market’s long-term valuation of UNI offers different outlooks, summarized below under two different market environments.
• Baseline scenario
Assuming steady growth in the DeFi industry, UNI maintains its current market share, protocol fee mechanisms operate smoothly, with a potential price target (by 2030) of about $35.
• Optimistic scenario
Assuming a "DeFi super cycle," with accelerated adoption, UNI capturing larger industry benefits, the potential price target (by 2030) approaches $100.
Important note: These forecasts are based on specific hypothetical models. Actual results may deviate significantly due to market conditions, regulatory changes, competition, and other factors. They should be viewed more as directional projections rather than price guarantees.

3. Lessons from historical cycles
Reviewing the three past bull-bear cycles, I observe two recurring patterns:
1. Market prices "narrative shifts" in advance: During early bull phases, the market tends to pay for future value stories rather than focus on current static data. The narrative shift of UNI towards "deflationary asset" and "core DeFi yield rights" is far more attractive than the daily $300,000 net selling pressure. This is similar to early Bitcoin, where people focused more on its ultimate narrative as "digital gold" rather than transaction fees at the time.
2. Leading assets enjoy premiums in bull markets: In each cycle, the top projects with solid fundamentals (like Uniswap’s position in DEX) see valuation ceilings continually raised. Capital flows into these "trusted assets," temporarily ignoring short-term flaws.

4. Future outlook and decision-making reference
1. Combining multiple market cycles, I believe for UNI, the key is understanding the asymmetric opportunities under its new narrative: downside risks are relatively controllable (supported by fundamentals and leadership position), while upside potential is unlocked by the new economic model. Overall, your judgment on UNI depends on your investment horizon:
• Short-term (next 3-6 months): The net selling pressure you mentioned is indeed the main contradiction. Prices may continue to be pressured or fluctuate within a wide range at the bottom, using time to gain space.
• Medium-term (1-2 years): The core focus is whether protocol revenue can explode with market activity. If DeFi Summer 2.0 arrives and burn volume surges, supply-demand structure will reverse. At that point, the market will reprice UNI.
• Long-term: UNI’s value will depend entirely on whether Uniswap can continue to serve as the underlying infrastructure for decentralized trading and capture significant value.
2. Decision-making framework:
• If you are a short-term trader: Respect the current market structure, consider net selling pressure as the main factor, and look for technical rebounds after oversold conditions.
• If you are a long-term investor: Focus more on its fundamental narrative shift. During current pessimism and low prices, consider dollar-cost averaging to accumulate positions, aiming for potential supply-demand reversals in future cycles. For long-term investors, every deep correction caused by market sentiment or short-term factors can be an opportunity to build a position gradually. The key is to buy in relatively undervalued zones, not chase highs.
• Position management: Given the high volatility of cryptocurrencies, UNI should be an "aggressive" allocation in your portfolio, with position sizes kept moderate and strict stop-loss discipline enforced.

5. Overall framework for developing a UNI trading plan
1. Maintain a calm view of its fundamentals: long-term value is clear, but short-term pressure persists. Systematically plan, control risks within acceptable ranges, and capture its long-term potential.
• Undervalued zone ($5.00 - $5.80)​, main accumulation zone​ about 60%. Core logic: this area is close to or below treasury token costs, with widespread pessimism cleared out, making it the best long-term risk-reward zone. Goal: establish core positions and wait for value to return.
• Breakout confirmation zone ($5.80 - $7.00)​, trend-adding zone​ about 30%. Core logic: price breaks key resistance, indicating market sentiment turning positive, trend confirmed. Goal: add on trend, aiming for trend-based gains.
• Strong continuation zone (> $7.00)​, profit-taking or profit-holding zone​ about 10% or reserved as profit. Core logic: price enters high zone, volatility increases. Part of the funds can be used to chase unexpected surges or temporarily hold. Goal: let profits run or lock in some gains, which helps maintain good psychology during subsequent volatility. The ultimate goal in a bull market is not to sell at the highest point but to convert chips into real gains at relatively high levels.
2. Key risk management, more important than profit targets
Hard stop-loss: if the premise of the plan changes, exit decisively.
• Situation one: price falls below $4.80. This indicates the market trend does not align with our "undervalued" judgment, potential unknown risks, and all or most UNI positions should be stopped out immediately.
• Situation two: BTC market crashes. If BTC drops below a key support (e.g., $80,000), the market may enter a full correction, requiring significant reduction or liquidation of UNI holdings to avoid systemic risk.
• Position cap: As a high-risk, high-potential altcoin, UNI position should not exceed 20% of your total capital. The above plan leaves ample room; strictly adhere to it.

6. Execution points and observation checklist
To successfully execute this plan, keep an eye on the following signals:
• Core indicators: protocol revenue and burn volume. Monitor data from sites like DeFiLlama. If weekly or monthly burn volumes continue to rise significantly, it’s a major positive for fundamentals.
• BTC/ETH trends: the market is a leading indicator; UNI cannot be isolated.
• Key events: overall DeFi activity. A new "DeFi Summer" will be the biggest catalyst for UNI’s surge.
Regulatory developments: clear and proactive regulatory frameworks will greatly boost market confidence in DeFi leaders.

Summary
• UNI is a "long-distance champion," but currently running with a "sack of sand" on its back. Our plan is to intervene during its burdened run, waiting for the moment when the sandbag is removed. This stage tests patience and discipline. We cannot predict the bottom, but we can confirm this area as a "golden pit" of value. Gradual buying can effectively average down and avoid buying in the middle of the climb.
• UNI’s tokenomics reform is a profound revaluation of its value. It is no longer just a symbol of DeFi governance tokens but strives to become a vehicle closely linked to the enormous economic value it creates.

I hope this analysis, combining data, mechanisms, and cycle experience, helps you better understand UNI’s true situation and provides a more comprehensive view of its current dynamics. If you have specific questions, we can continue to explore in depth.

Please note: This content is compiled from public market analysis and historical data, intended for informational reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; any investment decision should be based on your own independent research.