2026-01-10 21:38:18

#ETHTrendWatch

📉 Analysis: ETH at a crossroads

The current price dynamics for ETH are what I call the "Great Filter." Since the beginning of the year, we've seen a 10% rebound, but it hasn't been a clean "month" of growth.

Technical barrier: We are currently pushing against a strong resistance zone between $3,200 and $3,350. This area is filled with "bag holders" from late 2025 and key moving averages (50-day and 200-day EMA), which are currently limiting the upside.

Fundamental divergence: Beneath the surface, the situation looks different. Institutional accumulation has reached record levels — players like BitMine have added over 44,000 ETH to their treasuries this month. We are witnessing a massive supply shortage as more ETH moves into staking and Layer-2 after the Fusaka upgrade.

Relative weakness: Honestly — ETH is currently "lagging." It shows weaker results compared to BTC and XRP. This usually indicates one of two things: either it’s a "dead coin" (unlikely), or it’s a compressed spring waiting for rotation.

🎯 Trading signal (January 10–20)

I am currently neutral on the bullish sentiment, but I am not chasing green candles.

Long position (Aggressive strategy): If the 4-hour candle closes above $3,250, it’s a signal for a breakout of the current downtrend.

Target 1: $3,450 (December horizon)

Target 2: $3,620 (Main supply zone)

Entry based on "Wait and Offer" principle (Conservative strategy): Look for a retest of support in the $2,950–$3,020 zone. This is where big "Smart Money" has set their traps.

Unacceptable: A daily close below $2,850 will invalidate the bullish thesis and indicate a move toward $2,600.

🛡️ Risk management: Protect your capital

In such a volatile market, "Hope" is not a strategy. Here's how I manage my risk:

Position size: I am currently only 40% in "Risk-On." I keep 60% in stable assets, as Fed statements about "Holding higher longer" from the NFP report can easily trigger a $200 dump, wiping out high-leverage traders.

2% rule: Never risk more than 2% of your total account on a single ETH trade. If your stop-loss is at $2,950 and you enter at $3,150, calculate your position size accordingly.

Hedge with altcoins: Since ETH is lagging, I balance my high-beta portfolio on GateFun or stable Layer-1s like SOL/XRP, which show a faster rebound. If ETH crashes, these assets may hold better or bounce back quicker.

My personal view

I choose strategic patience. The Fusaka upgrade and institutional staking are long-term wins, but the short-term chart is chaotic. I allow "Degens" to fight at the $3,100 level while waiting for a clear breakout above $3,250 or a drop to $2,950.

Are you participating in this consolidation, or do you think we will see another "Final Dump" before a real rally? 💬👇

ETH0,7%

BTC0,08%

XRP-1,48%

SOL1,73%

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BabaJi

2026-01-10 05:43:14

#ETHTrendWatch
📉 The Analysis: ETH at the Crossroads

The current price action on ETH is what I call "The Great Filter." Since the start of the year, we've seen a 10% rebound, but it hasn't been a clean "moon" shot.

The Technical Wall: We are currently grinding against a heavy resistance zone between $3,200 and $3,350. This area is packed with "bag holders" from late 2025 and key moving averages (the 50-day and 200-day EMAs) that are currently capping the upside.

The Fundamental Divergence: Under the hood, things look different. Institutional accumulation is at a record high—players like BitMine have added over 44,000 ETH to their treasuries this month alone. We are seeing a massive supply squeeze as more ETH moves into staking and Layer-2s following the Fusaka upgrade.

The Relative Weakness: Let's be honest—ETH is currently the "laggard." It’s underperforming both BTC and XRP. This usually means one of two things: either it’s a "dead coin" (unlikely) or it’s a coiled spring waiting for the rotation to hit.

🎯 The Trading Signal (January 10–20)

I am currently Neutral to Bullish, but I am not chasing green candles here.

Long Entry (The Aggressive Play): If we get a 4-hour candle close above $3,250, it signals a breakout of the current descending structure.

Target 1: $3,450 (December High)

Target 2: $3,620 (Major Supply Zone)

The "Wait & Bid" Entry (The Conservative Play): Look for a retest of the $2,950–$3,020 support zone. This is where the big "Smart Money" buyers have set their traps.

Invalidation: A daily close below $2,850 kills the bullish thesis and suggests a move toward $2,600.

🛡️ Risk Management: Protecting Your Capital

In a market this volatile, "Hope" is not a strategy. Here is how I’m managing my risk:

Position Sizing: I am currently only 40% "Risk-On." I’m keeping 60% in stables because the Fed's "Higher for Longer" talk from the NFP report could easily cause a $200–$300 "flush" to wipe out high-leverage traders.

The 2% Rule: Never risk more than 2% of your total account on a single ETH trade. If your stop loss is at $2,950 and you enter at $3,150, calculate your position size accordingly.

Hedge with Alts: Since ETH is lagging, I’m balancing my portfolio with high-beta plays on GateFun or established Layer-1s like SOL/XRP which are showing more immediate strength. If ETH dumps, these might hold up better or bounce faster.

My Personal View

I’m choosing Strategic Patience. The "Fusaka" upgrade and institutional staking are long-term wins, but the short-term chart is messy. I’m letting the "Degens" fight it out at $3,100 while I wait for a clear break of $3,250 or a dip to $2,950.

Are you bidding this consolidation, or do you think we see one more "Final Flush" before the real rally starts? 💬👇

‍#ETHTrendWatch #Ethereum #CryptoAnalysis #TradingStrategy

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