2026/1/11 $ETH 4-hour level is in a low-range consolidation phase within a downtrend

Main basis:

1. Trend structure: The price has fallen from a significant high point and broke below the key short-term EMA support, forming lower highs and lower lows.

2. Momentum confirmation: MACD is operating below the zero line, confirming a bearish dominant market environment.

3. Correction pattern: Recently, the price has been fluctuating within a narrow range of 3070-3120, with decreasing volume. This is a typical correction after a decline. However, the overbought signal on StochRSI suggests this correction may be weak, with a risk of further downside.

4. Lack of reversal evidence: Although the MACD histogram is slightly converging, the main moving averages remain in a bearish alignment, and there is no sign of a volume breakout above key resistance. Therefore, a trend reversal to the upside cannot be confirmed.

Key level analysis

Key resistance levels:

* 3120-3130 area: Recent rebounds have been blocked here (e.g., 12:00 on January 10, 08:00 on January 11), and it is near the ema_fast moving average. This is a strong resistance zone.

* 3160-3180 area: A consolidation platform during the previous decline, also where the ema_slow moving average is located. A valid breakout above this zone could initially reverse the short-term downtrend.

Key support levels:

* 3080-3090 area: The lower boundary of the recent consolidation zone, providing weak support multiple times (e.g., 20:00 on January 10, 00:00 on January 11). Falling below this zone could open further downside space.

* 3050-3060 area: The low point reached during the January 8 decline, an even more important support level.

* 3000 psychological level: A long-term important psychological and technical support.

Trading suggestions:

Before a clear breakout above 3130 resistance, mainly adopt a shorting approach on rallies. Pay close attention to the gain or loss of the 3080 support level; if volume increases and it breaks down, it could accelerate further testing of the 3050 and even 3000 levels. Conversely, if a volume breakout occurs above 3130 and it stabilizes, the price may test the 3160-3180 resistance zone upward, and the trend should be reassessed then.