DOGE slides into critical levels: technical analysis and on-chain data reveal the next strong support zone

Dogecoin continues to decline on the weekly chart, rapidly approaching levels that could define the next major market move. With the price hovering around $0.14 and retracing 3.02% in the last 24 hours, sellers maintain dominance while bullish momentum is notably absent.

Technical Analysis: Fibonacci Retracement Sets the Path

The weekly DOGEUSD chart shows how the Fibonacci retracement drawn from the 2023–2025 move has positioned a critical zone between the 0.618 and 0.5 levels, approximately between $0.235 and $0.282. DOGE failed to consolidate above this band earlier in the year and broke downward, initiating a downtrend that persists to this day.

Once the price broke through that support level, the chart began to display a series of lower highs and lower lows, forming the characteristic descending channel that reflects a market under seller control. This pattern confirms that buyers have lost the advantage in the overall trend.

The 50-week Moving Average Acts as Dynamic Resistance

The price is significantly below the 50-week EMA, which is near $0.20. This moving average has consistently served as a dynamic resistance over the past months. Each attempt by DOGE to recover toward this level has been halted by sellers, preventing any weekly close above the line.

The RSI indicator on the weekly timeframe is around 30–35, a zone suggesting weakened momentum but not yet in oversold conditions. This indicates room for additional pressure unless DOGE stabilizes at nearby support levels.

Moderate Volume: Lack of Conviction

Trading activity has decreased markedly compared to the strong volume seen during the early 2025 rally. Recent candles show steady but tempered participation, highlighting that momentum has moved away from the aggressive accumulation that characterized previous moves.

On-Chain Data from Glassnode: The Next Strong Support at $0.081

According to analyst Ali (@ali_charts) using Glassnode data, the Dogecoin Realized Price Distribution chart (URPD) reveals an uncomfortable reality: current on-chain support is weak.

The bars on the chart show limited DOGE volume changing hands at current prices, indicating that the realized price support just below the market is fragile. However, the distribution thickens significantly near $0.081, where a substantial concentration of supply last changed hands. This grouping marks the next solid on-chain demand zone.

If Dogecoin falls below the current level, on-chain data suggest the price could gravitate toward $0.081, where a larger number of holders might be willing to defend their entries and establish real support.

Critical Zones in the Short Term

The immediate zone of $0.153–$0.158 acts as nearby support that warrants attention. This level served as resistance at the end of 2023 and early 2024 and now functions as potential defense. A weekly close below this level would further confirm the descending channel and could extend the move toward deeper targets.

What Is Needed for a Trend Reversal?

For the chart to show early reversal signals, DOGE would need to recover both the upper trendline of the channel and the 50-week EMA. Only then would the market demonstrate evidence of a broader shift in momentum toward the Fibonacci zone that previously acted as support.

With the price dropping 7.76% over the last 7 days and accumulating a 60.04% decline in the past year, downward pressure remains significant. The weekly chart currently illustrates a clear downtrend, with DOGE constantly moving away from its previous support in the critical zone and without confirmation of a meaningful change in overall market momentum.