2026-01-13 02:25:42

Tonight at 21:30, the US CPI data will be released. How important is this number? To put it simply, it directly determines whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates or hold steady, thereby influencing the overall trend of the crypto market.

First, understand what CPI is—simply put, it’s the US inflation rate index. When the Federal Reserve decides on interest rate policies, this data is the most critical reference.

There are three possible scenarios tonight, let’s analyze them one by one:

**Scenario 1: Data exceeds expectations (e.g., above 2.7%)**

This is bad news. The market will react immediately: signs of inflation rebound, the Fed’s rate cut plans may be delayed, and a rate hike cannot be ruled out again. What are the consequences? The US dollar will appreciate, US stocks will decline, and Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will likely be dragged down as well.

**Scenario 2: Data below expectations (e.g., below 2.7%)**

This is good news. Inflation is effectively controlled, giving the Fed more confidence to continue cutting rates. The US dollar will depreciate, US stocks will rise, and assets like Bitcoin often rebound or even surge rapidly.

**Scenario 3: Data in line with expectations (around 2.7%)**

This is a neutral to slightly positive scenario. The market will feel “no surprises,” interpreting it as inflation being within controllable range. There may be sharp volatility initially, but the trend will likely continue as before, such as a continued upward rebound.

Now, the question is—how do you plan to operate?

**Aggressive traders’ approach**: As soon as the data is released, if it’s below expectations, go all-in long; if it’s above expectations, immediately switch to short. The potential gains are high, but so are the risks.

**Moderate traders’ approach**: Let the market react for about half an hour, wait for the initial wave of emotion to subside, then look for relatively stable entry opportunities. This can help avoid being hit by sudden extreme volatility.

**Wait-and-see traders’ approach**: With so many variables in the news, simply clear your positions and wait a day to see how things develop. Once the market direction becomes clearer, re-enter.

Which camp do you belong to? Leave your choice below and share your reasoning—what direction do you think the market will take next?

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SatoshiHeir

· 3h ago

It should be pointed out that although the framework of this article is clear, it overlooks a fundamental issue—the tension between the lag of CPI data itself and the irrationality of market expectations. Based on on-chain data analysis, we find that large capital position adjustments are often completed more than 72 hours before the official data is released, which means that the so-called "three scenarios" are actually just retail investors' after-the-fact armchair strategizing. Let's return to the original thinking of Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper: the value consensus of Bitcoin as an inflation hedge is not shaken by the Fed's short-term policies. The true players have long seen through the illusion of this monetary policy.

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SandwichTrader

· 3h ago

I'll say it directly, CPI is just a market sentiment switch. Once the data is out, you can immediately see who are the true players and who are the chives. Talking about fully invested in chasing gains is easy, but when it really hits, few can withstand it. I'm a conservative type, waiting for the bullets to fly before acting. If it’s below expectations, it must rise immediately. If it weren’t for the positive news this time, I’d even doubt my own market analysis skills. Actually, instead of guessing the data, it’s better to watch the US stock market move first; that’s more honest than CPI. The news variables are too unpredictable, so I prefer to stay on the sidelines, clear my positions first, watch for a day, then re-enter. Honestly, this kind of data-driven market is just a game for smart money. Retail investors should not be too aggressive. What happened to those who bet on CPI? I really can’t think of anyone who made big money.

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CountdownToBroke

· 3h ago

The bankruptcy countdown, this account name is perfect, haha I just love this kind of self-deprecating humor. I'm really convinced by CPI, every time it's a good hand played by the Fed but then ruined. Full position chasing longs? Isn't that just suicide? I did that last time, and I got wiped out completely. Now I’m just waiting half an hour before making a move, letting those impatient folks go ahead and send money first. Steadiness is the way to go. Below expectations, can it really take off? I feel like it's just another harvest. Don’t ask me how I know, it’s just experience from losses recovered.

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ponzi_poet

· 3h ago

Full position chasing longs? I don't have that courage. Last time, the CPI unexpectedly dropped and I was cut in half. Wait half an hour before acting. Conservative players never lose. I am optimistic about below-expected figures. The crypto market has been a bit too crazy these days. CPI is really hard to predict. Instead of gambling, it's better to wait for certainty. You aggressive brothers, good luck haha.

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SatsStacking

· 3h ago

Full-position chasing is unreliable. Last time, I did the same when the CPI surprised me, and I got smashed through directly. Now I'm still in the shadow of cutting losses. I am optimistic about below-expected numbers, but let's be more cautious. Wait until the first wave of sentiment passes before jumping in, or else you're just working for the big players.

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AirdropAnxiety

· 4h ago

Full position chasing is a tactic I've tried before, and as a result, I lost a month's salary in an hour. I'll never be aggressive again. The probability of the index falling below expectations is quite high. It seems that in the end, it still depends on the Federal Reserve's stance. I'm choosing to observe and clear my positions first. Anyway, there are so many tricks in the crypto world; it's not too late to come back tomorrow. CPI is truly a mirror that exposes the true nature of the crypto market. Every time, it can crush people's confidence. A steady and cautious approach is indeed reliable, but it's easy to miss out on that quick surge. It's quite frustrating. People who wait half an hour before entering the market are now earning the most comfortably. I used to just want to chase quick money. If this data exceeds expectations, we might have a pretty rough decline.

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