#美国贸易赤字状况 Gold Trends and Trading Rhythm

The upward trend is still ongoing, and the short-term remains in a strong pattern. The key support is in the 4560-70 range; as long as this holds, the bullish outlook should be maintained. A pullback to this area can be used for low buying, but there's a detail to watch out for — fluctuations are more likely near yesterday's high, so don't be careless. Looking upward, 4660~70 is the first resistance, followed by the 4710-20 level.

Silver's story is even more interesting. After breaking through the 84 historical high, the medium-term target of 90 is within reach. In the long run, it could even look toward 100 or 120. In the short term, 86 is a critical level; having already touched it, the next focus should be on the 88-88.5 range.

But there's a practical issue: after continuous gains, technical indicators have entered overbought territory. At this point, it's crucial to stay clear-headed and not be overwhelmed by the rally. The fundamentals still support a bullish view, but being alert to the risk of a sudden correction is always wise. That's why defining the boundary between bullish and bearish is so important.

Tonight, the US CPI data will be released. In a market dominated by geopolitical factors, if the data aligns with expectations, the market may ignore it. Only significant deviations from expectations will trigger real volatility.

How to operate? For medium- and long-term holders and physical asset positions, it's recommended to relax and not be disturbed by short-term fluctuations. For short-term trading, pay special attention: once gold rises above 4600, avoid chasing; you can consider low buying in the 4560-77 range. If it falls below this range, it's time to pause; 4520 and below 4500 are the last lines of defense for a bullish outlook. For silver, 83-83.5 is the dividing line between bullish and bearish today.

One last cliché but truly important point: stop-losses must be in place. Without risk controls, don't trade.