Fidelity's Major Viewpoint: The Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Has Ended, Is the Super Cycle Already Beginning?

As time progresses into 2026, Bitcoin prices have recently experienced a significant correction, and the market is filled with unease. Fidelity Investments, in its published “2026 Cryptocurrency Market Outlook,” presents a disruptive perspective:

Bitcoin may have entered a “super cycle,” where the traditional four-year boom and bust cycles could be replaced by a more enduring, stable long-term bull market.

01 Paradigm Shift

In 2025, the cryptocurrency industry underwent a critical turning point. In March, the U.S. government issued an executive order officially establishing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. This move changed Bitcoin’s fundamental nature.

Previously viewed as a high-risk speculative tool, Bitcoin is now officially recognized by sovereign nations as a store of value. This shift in identity is unprecedented, with profound symbolic significance and practical impact.

Chris Cooper, Vice President of Fidelity Digital Assets Research, pointed out that this change signifies that the crypto market is entering a new paradigm.

As traditional fund managers and large investors begin to participate, Bitcoin is experiencing a structural demand shift, transforming from a mere retail speculation tool into a strategic asset for institutions and nations.

02 Super Drivers

Fidelity’s report suggests that the emergence of new investor groups may be creating two major engines driving the super cycle.

Government adoption is spreading rapidly. According to the report, many countries worldwide already hold some amount of cryptocurrency, but only a few have officially established crypto reserves.

In 2025, this situation began to change. Besides the U.S. executive order, Kyrgyzstan passed legislation in September to establish its own crypto reserve, and Brazil’s Congress is reviewing a bill that would allow up to 5% of international reserves to be held in Bitcoin.

Cooper explains this phenomenon using “game theory”: once more countries include Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves, others will feel competitive pressure and may follow suit.

Corporate allocations are accelerating. Over 100 publicly listed companies have added cryptocurrencies to their balance sheets, with about 50 controlling more than 1 million Bitcoins. These ongoing purchases are creating unprecedented institutional demand in the market.

03 End of the Four-Year Cycle?

Bitcoin’s history has followed a predictable four-year cycle: peaks in bull markets occurred in November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021; bottoms in bear markets occurred in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022.

If this pattern still holds, we might be nearing the end of this bull cycle. The current price correction seems to align with the characteristics of a cycle’s late stage.

However, Fidelity’s report points out that the fundamental change in structural demand—ongoing purchases by sovereign states and corporations—may be breaking this cycle. Some investors believe we are entering a sustained super cycle.

A similar commodity super cycle lasting nearly a decade in the 2000s suggests Bitcoin’s bull market could last for years, with smaller fluctuations during that period.

Cooper remains cautious: “These cycles won’t completely disappear because the fear and greed that create these cycles haven’t magically vanished.”

04 Super Cycle Correction or Beginning of a Bear Market?

At the start of 2026, Bitcoin prices experienced notable volatility. On January 13, Bitcoin was priced at $91,886.68, down from recent highs. This market behavior has sparked widespread debate: is this a healthy correction within the super cycle, or the start of a traditional bear market?

Cooper from Fidelity believes it’s too early to tell: “If the four-year cycle repeats, we should already have reached the historical high of this cycle and entered a full bear market.” He added that a definitive confirmation might only come later in 2026 to clarify the market trend.

The current volatility can be interpreted from two perspectives: on one hand, if the super cycle theory is correct, this is just a normal retracement in the bull market; on the other hand, if traditional cycles still dominate, it could mean a bear market has begun.

Market analysts note that positive U.S. economic data has delayed expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, impacting risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

05 Should You Enter at Different Timeframes?

Fidelity’s report provides clear guidance for different types of investors. For those seeking short- or medium-term gains (4 to 5 years or less), caution may be warranted, especially if the current cycle ultimately follows historical patterns.

“However, from a very long-term perspective, I personally believe that if you see Bitcoin as a store of value, you are never truly ‘too late’.”

Cooper emphasizes that as long as Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap remains unchanged, buying Bitcoin means investing labor or savings into an asset that won’t depreciate due to government monetary policies.

Data from Gate exchange shows Bitcoin’s current price staying above $92,000, despite fluctuations, well above the peaks of previous cycles.

For long-term investors considering allocations on Gate, the current market correction may offer an opportunity to reassess and gradually build positions.

Future Outlook

On January 13, when Bitcoin was priced at $92,000 on Gate, Fidelity analysts were closely observing market movements.

The office wall of Fidelity’s digital assets research team displays a historical Bitcoin chart, where the distinct four-year cycle markers seem to be replaced by a smoother, more sustained curve.

Over fifty companies hold over a million Bitcoins, and central banks in countries like Brazil and Kyrgyzstan are legally incorporating Bitcoin reserves. The consensus on value storage is expanding from the crypto community to global boards and national treasuries—this time, the market may be driven less by retail FOMO and more by long-term sovereign wealth strategies.