What does the decoupling of Bitcoin from M2 mean? Will the market still rise in 2026?

Question

【CoinDesk】Recently, an interesting phenomenon has sparked heated discussion in the community—since mid-last year, Bitcoin’s price trend has gradually diverged from the global M2 money supply (including cash, demand deposits, time deposits, and other liquidity). By 2026, this decoupling has become increasingly apparent.

Historically, the correlation between Bitcoin and M2 has been an important support for bullish arguments. But now? Analysts are arguing fiercely.

On one hand, Fidelity Digital Assets’ latest report remains optimistic. They believe the world is entering a monetary easing cycle, and the Fed’s QT (quantitative tightening) plan is about to end, which means M2 growth will continue to rebound in 2026, signaling a positive outlook for Bitcoin prices. Analyst MartyParty even predicts that Bitcoin will surge to catch up, re-aligning with M2 growth.

But the opposing view is entirely different. Mister Crypto points out that decoupling of Bitcoin from M2 often signals a market top, followed by a 2 to 4-year bear market. Meanwhile, Capriole Investments’ founder interprets this decoupling from another perspective—believing it reflects the risk that quantum computing could potentially crack Bitcoin’s encryption.

Regardless, despite these uncertainties, many investors still see Bitcoin as a long-term store of value, which might be the most worth pondering.

CafeMinor · Accepted Answer

Decoupling, just decouple then. Anyway, I can't understand it anymore, just treat it as playing its own game.

Bitcoin can now be spun into stories about anything, and it's about to reunite with M2 again? Alright, I'll wait and see.

Both Fidelity and some Crypto are just making things up. Why are so many people daring to make predictions in 2026?

Honestly, the rebound in M2 growth is indeed good news for crypto enthusiasts, but can it really save the market... question mark.

Decoupling means Bitcoin has its own rhythm, which is actually a good thing, isn't it?

Wait, why are these analysts' opinions so divided? Who the hell is right?

I'm a bit tired now. M2, decoupling, synchronization—I've automatically filtered out these terms.

TradingNightmare · Answer

Decoupling, just decouple then. Anyway, I can't understand this stuff; I just follow the trend and buy the dip.

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It's always M2 and QT. Can these analysts just say whether it will go up or down?

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I'm worried about Fidelity's optimism. Usually, going against the trend is the most profitable.

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We still have to wait another year until 2026. It's all nonsense to talk about rises or falls now. I'll just lie low for now.

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Decoupling Bitcoin from M2? Then what should it be linked to... my wallet? Haha.

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MartyParty's prediction is way too optimistic. Nine and a half out of ten analysts rely on luck.

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The bad news is it's decoupled. The good news is some people are still making up stories. That's what hope looks like.

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When will the market finally let ordinary people make money? Listening to these theories every day has made me numb.

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The analysts are arguing wildly, which shows no one is sure. Then I should sell now.

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What does decoupling mean? It means no one really knows whether it will go up or down.

MEVictim · Answer

Just disconnect if you want, I can't understand it anyway. Will it rise again in 2026? I only know that my coins are still losing value.

RugPullAlertBot · Answer

Just decouple if you want, anyway BTC's own story is pretty good.

The M2 logic should have gone bankrupt long ago, and it's a bit funny that people are still arguing about whether it's real.

I'm even more skeptical about Fidelity's optimism; I've heard this kind of rhetoric too many times.

Whether it rises in 2026 mainly depends on what the Federal Reserve does next; M2 is just a cover.

By the way, could reverse operations be more profitable in such times?

DAOTruant · Answer

Decoupling, what's the point of arguing anymore? Anyway, we're just looking for reasons for our positions haha

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Fidelity is back to storytelling again, this time about QT ending? I feel like they’re always talking about positives

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M2 growth ≠ Bitcoin price increase, that logic has long collapsed

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Both sides are making it sound plausible, but in the end, it’s still about the Fed’s stance

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I really don’t understand why, after decoupling, people still obsess over M2. Are there really so many reasons for price fluctuations?

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I’ll just listen to MartyParty’s predictions and move on. What did they say about this time last year?

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The issue isn’t M2; it’s whether US policy can be balanced on this scale

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Instead of studying decoupling, better ask if the 2026 recession will cause a market crash

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That’s why I don’t trust any macro analysis anymore. They’re all armchair quarterbacks after the fact

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What does decoupling actually represent? It means BTC is becoming more independent, isn’t that a good thing?

POAPlectionist · Answer

Just disconnect if you want, I really can't understand it anyway haha, just waiting to see who gets proven wrong in 2026.

MeaninglessApe · Answer

Decoupling, just decouple if you want, I can't understand anyway... Just buy and that's it

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Another prediction of "will rebound," I laughed, they said the same last year

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Fidelity's optimism is crap, just waiting to be proven wrong

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What does M2 have to do with me buying coins, the price is what matters

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Analysts are just armchair strategists, the market will move on its own

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I don't know if it will rise in 2026, but there are quite a few people cutting losses now

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Everyone's arguing, no one can be sure... better to HODL and be safe

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Decoupling actually shows Bitcoin is independent, isn't that a good thing?

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Gives me a headache, I still prefer looking at candlestick charts

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It's both monetary easing and QT, in the end, it's the retail investors paying the price

What does the decoupling of Bitcoin from M2 mean? Will the market still rise in 2026?

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