Is it liquidity tightening or a structural issue? Analyzing Bitcoin's 2025 dilemma and the 2026 turnaround logic

【Crypto World】Many industry insiders attribute Bitcoin’s downturn this year to the market itself, but some analysts believe the problem isn’t that deep. The key factor is the tightening of US dollar liquidity—when Federal Reserve policies are restrictive and dollar supply decreases, risk assets like Bitcoin naturally come under pressure. This is not a “sickness” of Bitcoin, but rather a “winter” in the entire financial environment.

From another perspective, once monetary policy shifts to easing in 2026, the situation may reverse. Ample liquidity often boosts the valuation of risk assets, and Bitcoin is expected to break through its historical highs.

The market has already sensed this shift. The $19 billion liquidation event in October once scared investors, causing the Fear and Greed Index to dip. But in recent weeks, this index has turned to “Greed” for the first time, with Bitcoin’s price approaching $97,000. The resonance between the two is no coincidence—when large funds start to bet optimistically, retail investor sentiment also becomes more active.

So, there’s no need to be overly pessimistic about Bitcoin’s volatility. Liquidity cycles are macroeconomic, but they will eventually turn.