2026-01-15 09:01:12

#美国民主党BlueVault Will the Federal Reserve's verbal tightening and actual easing push Bitcoin towards $200,000?

Looking back at Bitcoin's correction from 126,000 to 80,000, the decline was exactly 37%. Reviewing previous records, the first two correction waves were between 30% and 31%. Interestingly, what happened after each correction? A surge of 120% in three months, or a steady increase of 70%.

Currently, Bitcoin is in the final explosive phase of the bull market. Based on this logic, a 150% to 200% increase within three months is not unreasonable, which would bring the price to the range of $180,000 to $240,000. The most intense gains in a bull market never occur at the start or middle, but at the tail end. At this time, institutions are accumulating, national funds are moving, and debt management is progressing. Retail investors who choose to sell now are essentially becoming the targets of a trap.

Do you remember the scene when Bitcoin was at $31,000? The whole network was shouting that Bitcoin was doomed, but some dared to say it could rise above $100,000. When Ethereum hit $2,200, the market was panic-stricken, yet some predicted a main upward wave to $3,800 next month, short-term to $5,000, and mid-term to $12,000. How did these predictions turn out? Everyone knows the answer.

Looking at historical patterns: in the 2017 bull market tail, it rose from 2,800 to 20,000 in three months; in the 2019 bear-to-bull transition, it rose from 3,300 to 14,000; in the 2021 bull market tail, it rose from 13,000 to 58,000; in the 2023 bear-to-bull transition, it rose from 34,000 to 64,000; after consolidation in 2024, it rose from 49,000 to 100,000 in three months.

This is Bitcoin's rhythm—each main upward wave erupts within a three-month cycle, and the frenzy often ignites suddenly in moments of despair. The current market looks a bit weak, but that’s exactly the illusion the main players prefer. ETFs are quietly accumulating, M2 is expanding, the Nasdaq hits new highs, but gold has topped out. The Fed talks about tightening, but in reality, actions are quite loose—this is the underlying logic of the final stage of a bull market.

$BTC

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

6 Likes

Reward
6
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

CryptoPhoenix

· 01-15 13:12

Having experienced a 50% drop in 2018 and a zeroing out in 2022, this current correction is really nothing. The key is whether we can endure the three months of madness [laughing with tears].

View OriginalReply0

BanklessAtHeart

· 01-15 09:16

Damn, this data is really accurate. Is it always this precise?

View OriginalReply0

GasFeeAssassin

· 01-15 09:07

Historical patterns are right here, with each three-month cycle getting more intense. Can we really push to 200,000 this time? I think there's a chance.

View OriginalReply0

ForumMiningMaster

· 01-15 09:07

Historical patterns are truly heartbreaking, always igniting hope in despair... But on the other hand, could this be another trick by the big players?

View OriginalReply0

fren.eth

· 01-15 09:05

History tends to repeat itself. This 37% correction is indeed a bit scary, but according to the rhythm, this is just the main force's routine manipulation. 150% to 200% in three months? Honestly, it sounds a bit like gambling, but based on historical data, such a possibility does exist. The problem is you need to have the mindset to hold on until then. The Federal Reserve's recent actions are quite interesting; saying one thing and doing another. Isn't this just paving the way for the upcoming frenzy? People who sell now will probably regret it later. Retail investors always choose to exit at the last moment.

View OriginalReply0