The recent week has been quite interesting for Bitcoin's price movement. From $90,000 climbing all the way up to $97,000, the total increase since the beginning of the year is about 10%. It looks vigorous and lively, but the underlying logic is worth a closer look.

Based on comparisons between on-chain data and derivatives data, this rally is mainly driven by spot buying rather than futures leverage. It might sound like a subtle difference, but in reality, it's quite significant. An upward trend driven by spot activity is usually more stable and less prone to sudden breakdowns; whereas if the rally relies entirely on leverage, caution is advised, as a market sentiment reversal could trigger chain reactions of liquidations.

A key detail is this: over the past week, Bitcoin's price increase has shifted from a leverage-dominated environment to one supported by spot purchases. This indicates genuine capital entering the market, rather than traders playing leverage games.

However, risks should not be overlooked. According to Glassnode data, the open interest in Bitcoin-denominated futures remains around 678,000 BTC (on January 8th, it was 679,000 BTC), showing little change. The funding rate for perpetual futures is currently negative, which suggests that the overall leverage in the system is relatively stable. It doesn't seem like a major blow-up is imminent, but the risk of a liquidation cascade still exists.