## Gold Retreats from $4500: A Comprehensive Analysis of Key Drivers and Investment Opportunities

Recently, the gold market (XAU/USD) experienced a corrective move after attempting to break through the $4500 level, which is considered a significant psychological barrier. This decline reflects a natural profit-taking process following a strong rally in previous sessions, especially after reaching the highest level recorded during the Asian session on Wednesday. But the pressing question now for investors is: **Is it the right time to buy gold after this correction?**

### Fundamental Factors Support Safe-Haven Despite Short-Term Pullback

The current market environment indicates that the fundamental support for gold remains strong, regardless of daily pressures. Geopolitical risks play a pivotal role here, as tensions escalate in multiple regions. Additionally, lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, unrest in Iran, and issues surrounding Gaza, along with US President Donald Trump's threat to annex Greenland and hostile rhetoric towards Colombia and Mexico, all contribute to maintaining gold’s appeal as a safe haven and support its prices in the medium term.

On the other hand, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve serve as an additional supportive factor. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in the possibility of the Fed lowering borrowing costs in March and implementing another cut later in the year. This expected outlook puts pressure on the US dollar, making non-yielding gold more attractive to global investors.

### US Economic Data Will Determine the Next Path

Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of key US macroeconomic figures in the coming days. Foremost among these is the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which is a pivotal event in determining the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path. Additionally, the upcoming US consumer inflation figures on Tuesday will provide crucial signals about price dynamics.

Currently, traders are showing clear caution and are waiting for these data releases before making significant positioning decisions. Also, Wednesday’s agenda, including the ADP private employment report, ISM services PMI, and JOLTS job openings, will add some momentum.

### Is it the right time to buy gold from a technical perspective?

From a technical standpoint, the current situation presents a mixed picture. The 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) is rising and sits below the spot prices, indicating support for the primary trend near the $4400 level. This suggests that declines may find long-term support at these levels.

However, the MACD (MACD) is below the signal line and remains in the negative zone, with the histogram widening in the downward direction. The RSI (RSI) has fallen to 48.58, neutral, reflecting a balanced momentum after recent weakness. Gold may find some support near the congestion zone of $4450-4445 in the short term.

In the short term, momentum needs to stabilize to reaffirm the bullish tone. A shift of the MACD toward a bullish crossover and RSI pushing back above 50 would support renewed upside. Conversely, failure to improve could keep the bias heavy and lead to a retest of the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA). As long as the price remains above this key line, declines may stay limited.

### Final verdict: Is it the right time to buy gold?

Based on a comprehensive analysis of fundamental and technical factors, it appears that **the time may be suitable to buy gold** strategically at lower levels, especially near the $4450 mark. The fundamental support is very strong in terms of geopolitical risks and monetary outlooks, while the current correction offers a reasonable entry opportunity.

However, investors should remain cautious and closely monitor upcoming US economic data, particularly NFP and inflation figures. These releases could trigger significant price movements and determine whether gold maintains its bullish momentum or faces additional pressures.