Gold forecast: Dollar and NFP data set the tone – Bulls await breakthrough above $4,500

Precious Metal Gold (XAU/USD) is stuck in a classic wait-and-see mode on Friday. The reason is simple: the US dollar is gaining, the Fed could loosen soon – and the key US job data are imminent. Those looking to invest here need clear signals rather than gambling.

The Dollar Story Holds Back Gold’s Recovery

Gold couldn’t continue the “good” recovery from Thursday out of the $4,400 zone. The culprit is a spectacular US dollar: during the Asian trading session, the greenback hit a nearly one-month high – its gains over the past two weeks have remained intact. From the bulls’ perspective, this is uncomfortable because a strong dollar makes the interest-free gold less attractive.

At the same time, there is a countercurrent: market participants are praising the possibility that the Fed might loosen policy later this year. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week that lower interest rates are the missing ingredient for stronger growth – a jab at a potentially still too tight central bank. This supports gold again because rate cuts make the non-yielding precious metal relatively more attractive.

NFP Data as a Critical Test Moment

Tonight, the truth will be revealed: the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be announced. This is the critical timing for all Fed expectations and thus also for gold and the dollar. The market expects the US economy to have created 60,000 new jobs in December (Previous month: 64K). The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5% (November: 4.6%).

If the data come in weaker, hopes for the Fed to loosen could rise – gold would benefit, and the dollar would come under pressure. But if the data confirm stability or strength, the rate cut fantasy would cool off and pressure would build on XAU/USD.

Geopolitical Risks as a Safety Net

A reassuring aspect for gold holders: the world is tense enough to support the precious metal as a safe haven.

• Venezuela: Donald Trump hinted that the US could exploit the country’s oil reserves and “run” them for “years.”
• China vs. Japan: China escalated the dispute by restricting exports of rare earths and magnets to Japan – a response to Taiwan-related remarks by the Japanese Prime Minister.
• Ukraine War: Chancellor Friedrich Merz considers an early end unrealistic and warns of European troop deployments.

These uncertainties could slow down larger gold sales – a safety net under current prices.

Technical Analysis: Uptrend Intact – but $4,500 is the Benchmark

The overall bias remains constructive. Gold is trading above the rising 200-period EMA at $4,322.58 – this is the anchor point for pullbacks.

MACD Signal: The MACD line is still below the signal line and below zero, but already turning upward. The negative histogram is shrinking – a sign of decreasing selling pressure.

RSI Level: At 56, the Relative Strength Index is above the neutral 50 line. This indicates improved momentum without already entering overbought territory.

The Critical Hurdle: Bulls are eager and waiting for a convincing breakout above $4,500. As long as gold stays above $4,322.58, the tone remains bullish. A break below would open room for a deeper correction.

Gold Outlook: Much Depends on Today

In the short term, the NFP surprise will be decisive. If the job data confirm a loose Fed, the dollar should weaken – gold could move higher. If the data disappoint, the rate cut hopes will evaporate, and pressure on XAU/USD will rise.

The current constellation is interesting: gold is trading near December’s all-time high, meaning the risk-reward profile remains open in both directions without a clear signal. Only a convincing follow-through above $4,500 would open the way for strong gains – or, conversely, a clear slide below technical support would unleash deeper losses. Caution remains advisable until then.