Most expensive metal in the world retreats in technical consolidation as investors await macroeconomic signals

Gold Faces Consolidation Near US$ 4,500 After Profit-Taking Despite Complex Geopolitical Environment Favoring Safe-Haven Assets

The world’s most valuable commodity (XAU/USD) is trading under technical pressure as investors take profits after a positive week. The price remains near the psychological barrier of US$ 4,500, marking the weekly high reached during Wednesday’s Asian session. Although recent gains are substantial, current momentum shows signs of weakening.

Price Dynamics and Technical Consolidation

Technical indicators suggest caution in the short term. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) crossed below its signal line and remains in negative territory, with the histogram expanding downward. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to 48.58, indicating neutral momentum after the recent slowdown in the rally.

The 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) provides support in an upward trend, positioned below current prices near US$ 4,400. A potential drop below this line could expose the world’s most expensive metal to additional pressure. For the bullish scenario to be reaffirmed, a MACD reversal with a crossover upward and RSI above 50 would be necessary.

Macro and Geopolitical Factors in Focus

The risk environment remains multifaceted. Recent developments include diplomatic actions by the US, ongoing tensions in Russia-Ukraine, unstable situations in Iran, and pending issues in Gaza. This scenario keeps safe-haven premiums high for gold, which acts as protection against uncertainties.

Meanwhile, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to support the commodity. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in the possibility of a rate reduction in March, with another cut potentially by the end of the year. These dovish expectations weigh on the US dollar, benefiting an asset that offers no yield.

Economic Calendar Will Determine Next Moves

Investors are in a defensive stance, preferring to wait for clear signals before positioning for the next phase. Some key catalysts are coming in the next days:

• Wednesday: ADP employment report, ISM services PMI, and JOLTS job openings
• Friday: Highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, a crucial indicator to guide Fed decisions
• Next Tuesday: US consumer inflation data

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin signaled that new adjustments to short-term rates will need to align with emerging data amid risks to employment and inflation targets.

Technical Outlook for the World’s Most Expensive Metal

The current consolidation keeps the precious metal trapped between resistance around US$ 4,500 and support around US$ 4,445-4,450. As long as the price remains above the 100-hour SMA, declines could stay contained. A close below this trend line would signal greater downside potential.

For bullish momentum to be restored, an improvement in technical indicators combined with macroeconomic catalysts reinforcing expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve would be necessary.