West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil settles above $59 amid geopolitical risks tangled around global supplies

Crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) continues its gains for the third consecutive session, with trading settling near $59.10 per barrel during Asian trading on Monday. These gains are driven by multiple risks to global supplies, reflecting complex geopolitical tensions extending from Tehran to Caracas.

Iran: A Direct Threat of 2 Million Barrels Per Day

Escalating protests in Iran pose the biggest current concern for markets. Iran exports approximately 2 million barrels per day, making it the fourth-largest producer in OPEC. As unrest enters its third week and authorities’ responses escalate, the likelihood of production and export disruptions increases. U.S. President Donald Trump warned Tehran against using force against protesters, indicating potential action if tensions escalate, while Tehran responded with a stern warning against any American or Israeli intervention.

Venezuela: A Price-Restricting Factor

On the other hand, prospects of resuming Venezuelan exports hinder oil price gains. Trump indicated that Caracas could deliver up to 50 million barrels from its impaired reserves to the United States, which would increase global supply. However, uncertainty still surrounds the speed of Venezuela’s export restart due to political complexities and changing U.S. sanctions. Trump also called on Cuba to freeze its oil and financial support for Venezuela.

Russia: Secondary but Effective Risks

Traders are also monitoring the possibility of Russian supply disruptions due to ongoing Ukrainian attacks on energy facilities, as well as the potential imposition of additional U.S. sanctions on the Russian energy sector. These three factors—Iran, Venezuela, and Russia—collectively create a complex dynamic regarding global crude oil supply expectations in the coming months.