Will gold succeed in surpassing $4550? An in-depth analysis of market dynamics in January 2026

Technical Picture: Solid Uptrend Supporting Bullish Outlook

Gold moves within an explosive ascending channel on the 2-hour chart, maintaining strong levels above $4,465, having broken through the $4,455 barrier which acted as a repeated test zone. The widening distance between the price and moving averages reflects sustained buying momentum without a clear slowdown.

The MACD indicator continues to trade above the zero line with consistent positive bars, confirming the dominance of the uptrend in price movement. The RSI (RSI) is moving above 70 but without overbought exhaustion, indicating a potential for limited technical correction before a new upward push, without changing the overall trend.

Next important resistance levels are at $4,525, $4,600, and $4,680, while support levels at $4,370, $4,290, and $4,220 provide sufficient absorption for any sideways selling pressures.

Macro Factors: A Coalition of Positive Catalysts

Dollar decline and bond yields pave the way

The dollar index fell to its lowest in a week, alongside a decline in the 10-year US Treasury yields. This traditional development enhances gold’s appeal from two angles: a weaker dollar increases the metal’s attractiveness to holders of other currencies, while falling yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.

These movements reflect growing conviction that the US monetary tightening cycle is nearing its end, and the next phase will be more favorable for defensive assets.

Federal Reserve signals redraw expectations map

Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials, especially Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari, indicated that inflation is receding slowly while risks of rising unemployment are increasing. These signals have re-priced monetary policy expectations, with investors now leaning toward a rate cut scenario in 2026 if signs of weakness appear in the labor market.

Upcoming non-farm payroll data will be pivotal in determining whether this dovish tone will translate into actual policy steps.

Geopolitical landscape: Rising global uncertainty

Recent developments in Venezuela have not only been regional but have also highlighted fissures in the global geopolitical structure amid escalating US-China competition. This climate pushes investors toward more cautious strategies, reducing exposure to high-risk assets in favor of value-preserving instruments.

The increasing use of sanctions and trade restrictions as political tools deepens risks that cannot be quickly priced in, making hedging a strategic necessity rather than a tactical choice.

Tariffs: A Complex Scenario Supporting Gold

A recent study from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco proposed an intriguing hypothesis: high tariffs may contribute to lowering inflation rather than raising it. Historically, high tariffs have been associated with increased uncertainty and economic slowdown, which pressure demand and limit price pressures despite rising import costs.

This opens a new interpretive avenue: a decline in inflation coupled with weakness in the labor market could push the Fed toward a more dovish stance. The uncertainty surrounding this scenario increases demand for hedging tools, with gold as a neutral asset unaffected directly by trade shocks.

Upcoming Events Shaping the Path

Eurozone preliminary inflation data: Any slowdown exceeding expectations could boost bets on ECB rate cuts, pressuring the euro and supporting gold.

US 3-year Treasury auction: Strong demand may push yields down and support gold, while weak participation could limit short-term momentum.

Federal Reserve member Thomas Barkin’s speech: Any signals regarding the Fed’s balance between inflation and employment could alter market dynamics.

Historical Context: 64% Gains in 2025

Gold experienced an exceptional year in 2025 with a 64% increase, the strongest annual performance since 1979. This rally was driven by easing monetary policy, rising central bank purchases, and strong inflows into ETFs. The price peaked at $4,549.71 on December 26, 2025, bringing the current level close to this historic high.

Financial Institutions’ Outlook: Divergent but Positive

Goldman Sachs expects a target range of $4,900 - $5,000 in the second half of 2026, supported by declining real yields and sustained central demand.

UBS foresees sideways upward movements in the near term, with an average trading range around $4,700-$4,800 in Q1, considering the market needs to absorb the historic gains.

Citi believes that if gold stabilizes above $4,400 - $4,500 in January, it will confirm the strength of the structural trend, with potential re-tests of highs if employment data weaken.

Morgan Stanley warns that any sudden economic improvement could trigger profit-taking waves, but this would not alter the long-term positive outlook as long as the macro environment remains risk-on.

Summary: Momentum Favors the Upside

Gold enters the first half of January balancing strong geopolitical and monetary support against phased pressures from awaiting key US data. The medium-term trend remains bullish, supported by increasing odds of rate cuts and widening uncertainty gaps related to trade policies.

The likelihood of surpassing the $4,550 level in the coming days is reasonable, especially if economic data come in without surprises or show weakness in the labor market.