Oil price fluctuations cause concerns, US stocks face multiple tests in 2026

The Great Oil Supply Chessboard: OPEC+ Strategy Changes

As we enter 2025, the global energy market faces a critical turning point. Last week, OPEC+ announced it would maintain its current production plan and decided to pause additional output increases in January, February, and March 2026, keeping production levels the same as in December 2025. This decision marks a reassessment of the organization’s outlook on the market.

A review of the past two years’ production cuts reveals the clues. Since April 2023, OPEC+ has implemented voluntary cuts of about 1.65 million barrels per day, followed by an additional cut of 2.2 million barrels per day in November 2023. However, these measures have not fully prevented market share loss—U.S., Canada, and other countries have continued increasing their crude oil production. Therefore, starting from April 2025, OPEC+ launched a phased increase plan, undergoing multiple rounds of incremental increases, with a final daily increase of 137,000 barrels between October and December. The current pause in production increases actually reflects an adjustment in market supply expectations.

Geopolitical Conflicts and Strategic Energy: Venezuela as a Key Player

Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, with heavy oil reserves exceeding 300 billion barrels, and also abundant resources of natural gas, gold, bauxite, and other minerals. U.S. policymakers’ focus on the country’s energy infrastructure is no coincidence—U.S. infrastructure, heavy transportation, and AI data centers have a strong demand for heavy crude oil.

Market analysts believe that the U.S. strategic intervention in Venezuela’s oil industry essentially reflects a new trend in global energy geopolitics. If the U.S. successfully reactivates the country’s oil facilities, it could long-term alter the global oil supply landscape. However, in the short term, considering the time and capital required for infrastructure rebuilding, the actual impact on oil prices remains limited.

Inflation and Interest Rate Paradox: Emerging Fiscal Dominance Risks

On Monday, former U.S. Treasury Secretary and former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen issued a warning at the Economic Society Annual Meeting, directly pointing to the increasing threat of “fiscal dominance” (fiscal dominance) on the U.S. economy. The core logic is: as U.S. debt continues to grow, it may force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low to ease government debt repayment pressures, thereby losing control over inflation.

This concern is not unfounded. Trump publicly called for the Fed to cut interest rates to reduce debt burdens, and with the Fed Chair set to update policy in January, such political pressures could intensify.

According to the latest economic data, the U.S. November CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year (below September’s 3%), with core CPI up 2.6% YoY. The Fed’s most closely watched core PCE inflation index increased 2.8% YoY. Market consensus holds that inflationary pressures mainly stem from one-time tariff shocks. However, if oil supply increases, tariff effects could re-emerge, creating a new round of inflationary pressure.

Market Expectation Gaps: Supply and Demand Imbalance

Industry insiders generally expect that by 2026, the international crude oil market will face a clear oversupply, and current oil prices have already fully reflected this expectation. This suggests that volatility in oil prices throughout the year is likely to increase significantly.

Against this backdrop, the U.S. stock market still has a basis for continued short-term gains, but investors need to be cautious. Especially considering the difficulty in resolving U.S. debt issues in the short term, market focus may shift from infrastructure investment to actual productivity improvements driven by AI applications.

Nasdaq 100 Technical Signals: Key Support Levels Await Verification

The Nasdaq 100 index rose 0.36% during the period, temporarily stabilizing above 25,300 points. Although the index has declined for four consecutive days, the overall upward trend has not reversed.

In the medium term, if the Nasdaq 100 can hold above 23,900 points, the upward momentum may continue. Short-term investors should focus on the key support level at 25,300 points—if this level holds, a rebound could challenge 26,000 points, and further rise toward 27,630 points is possible. The key market question now is whether the correction has ended; investors should closely monitor technical signals and macroeconomic interactions.