Gold Analysis: Will it regain bullish momentum or await a deeper correction? - January 9, 2026

Market Context: Gold Between Dollar Strength and Hopes for Rate Cuts

Gold is experiencing conflicting pressures these days. While trying to maintain levels near $4,469 per ounce, multiple forces are vying for influence. On one hand, the US dollar is rising strongly, driven by market anticipation of a Supreme Court decision regarding the President’s authority to impose tariffs, which boosts demand for the US currency as a safe haven and weighs on dollar-denominated assets.

On the other hand, expectations of interest rate cuts remain attractive for the yellow metal. Federal Reserve Chair Stephen Miran indicated the possibility of a cut of around 150 basis points throughout 2026, reducing the opportunity cost of holding interest-free gold. However, these statements have been contrasted by some other Fed members, creating ambiguity in assessing the actual easing magnitude.

In addition, Fitch Agency raised its US GDP growth forecasts, hinting at a more resilient economy than expected. This diminishes the argument for intensive safe-haven demand, but the overall economic environment—marked by political uncertainty and geopolitical risks—keeps structural demand for gold broad.

Geopolitical Factors: Continued Support for Safe-Haven Demand

Escalating tensions in the South China Sea and political conflicts in oil-producing Middle Eastern countries reflect a global uncertainty that remains persistent. Investors are responding by increasing their holdings of gold as protection against potential shocks, which explains the continued rise in prices despite short-term corrections.

This geopolitical environment gives gold a stable role as a defensive tool, especially since global risks show no signs of abating soon.

Chart: Natural Correction Within an Uptrend

Technically analyzing the price, it appears that gold has entered an active correction phase after failing to sustain strong upward momentum at the end of the previous week. The price declined to test the 4,430-4,420 dollar zone, a previous demand area that served as support in past price behavior.

The current movement reflects the exit of speculative liquidity and natural profit-taking before the week ends, not a change in the structural trend. The key resistance at $4,491.95 was not decisively broken, leaving the door open for an acceleration if the price regains stability above it.

On the two-hour chart, the scene appears more cautious, with the market entering a phased correction after the failed breakout. However, on larger timeframes, the overall trend remains clearly bullish.

Momentum Indicators: Gradual Depletion Without Reversal

MACD indicator shows a negative crossover above the zero line, indicating a shift from momentum building to its depletion. But this does not mean a reversal of the medium-term trend, only a short-term natural unwinding.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 50-60 range, a neutral zone reflecting ongoing selling pressure without entering oversold territory. This leaves room for further downside before the price becomes attractive for selective entry.

Critical Technical Levels

Major Resistance Levels:

• $4,570
• $4,640
• $4,700

Support Levels:

• $4,370
• $4,290
• $4,220

Major Financial Institutions’ Outlook

HSBC Bank expects gold to reach $5,000 per ounce during the first half of 2026, driven by geopolitical risks and rising global debt. However, the bank lowered its average annual forecast to $4,587 per ounce, with a prediction range between $3,950 and $5,050 throughout the year—reflecting high potential volatility.

Morgan Stanley and UBS support the possibility of maintaining high trading levels, with chances of breaking $4,800 in the last quarter of the year, provided the fundamental factors continue to support the trend.

Upcoming Economic Events Today

Three US economic indicators will strongly influence price behavior:

US Employment Report: To be released today, covering December 2025 job opportunities, a key indicator of labor market health. Economists expect limited job growth with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate. Weak surprises could boost safe-haven demand like gold.

Federal Reserve Member Thomas Barkin’s Remarks: Barkin will speak later today, and his comments may clarify future monetary policy directions. Signals supporting cuts will benefit gold, while tightening messages could temporarily pressure prices.

Consumer Confidence Index: Weak consumer confidence typically boosts gold demand, while high confidence may reduce interest in it.

Summary and Future Outlook

The market is in a delicate balance between opposing forces. Dollar strength presses from below, while easing expectations and geopolitical risks support from above. The current correction appears healthy and natural within a longer-term bullish trend.

Investors tend to view phased pullbacks as buying opportunities in an environment characterized by high risks and declining certainty. As long as the need for hedging against multiple global risks persists, gold will retain its structural appeal.

Recommended Trading Strategy

Selective buying from support zones at $4,370-$4,290 remains the best option for traders expecting the uptrend to continue in the medium term, with strict risk management and no large capital risked before confirming stability above $4,491.95.

Selling remains a short-term tactical option on weak rebounds only, especially in the current environment that supports gold as a protective asset during times of uncertainty.