January 5th Pre-Market Financial Briefing: Geopolitical tensions intensify, driving commodity divergence; cryptocurrencies continue to rise, and Taiwanese aluminum industry concept stocks attract attention

Global Market Sentiment Shifts Suddenly, Safe-Haven Flows Drive Capital Movement

On Monday’s opening, geopolitical tensions rapidly became the main focus of the market. As international situations change, the US dollar index surged past 98.4, hitting a new high in nearly two weeks. This upward momentum reflects investors’ reassessment of risk assets—traditional safe havens like gold rose accordingly, reaching a high of 4372.6 USD, nearly a 1% increase. In contrast, the oil market faced clear pressure, with WTI briefly falling below 57 USD to 56.5 USD, showing a divergence within commodity markets.

Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market demonstrated resilience against the trend. Bitcoin continued its upward trend, rising 1.95% in 24 hours, currently quoted at 96.91K USD; Ethereum also maintained strength, up 2.19% in 24 hours to 3.36K USD. Over the past four trading days, both major cryptocurrencies recorded consecutive gains, indicating that market interest in digital assets remains undiminished despite macroeconomic turbulence.

Venezuela Tensions Escalate, Energy Landscape Faces Reshaping

Weekend events have impacted global energy and geopolitical situations. According to the latest developments, Venezuela’s Supreme Court has ordered Vice President and Oil Minister Rodriguez to serve as acting president, without declaring President Maduro’s absolute absence, implying that no general elections will be held within 30 days. The US has taken a firm stance; Trump told the media on Sunday that Rodriguez “may pay a heavier price than his predecessor if he does not do the right thing,” implying clear warning.

Meanwhile, US officials revealed long-term strategic planning for regional resources. Trump reiterated the US’s need for Greenland and reaffirmed that the US does not require Venezuela’s oil, effectively reshaping the energy and geopolitical landscape of the Western Hemisphere. The Danish Prime Minister responded immediately, emphasizing that the US has no right to annex any Danish territory, signaling ongoing tensions.

Crude Oil Outlook Downward, Gold Safe-Haven Demand Supports

The divergence in energy markets reflects conflicting expectations for the future. Industry analyst El-Erian pointed out the core logic: oil prices are under pressure due to expectations of increased Venezuelan exports, contingent on smooth political transitions; gold prices are rising due to heightened uncertainty, with safe-haven capital continuing to flow in.

Goldman Sachs’ analysis team further deepened this view. They believe that US intervention could boost Venezuela’s oil production in the future, but the extent depends on the pace of infrastructure repair and large-scale investment willingness. Goldman maintains its forecast of Brent crude at an average of 56 USD/barrel and WTI at 52 USD/barrel in the near term. However, they emphasize that in the long term (beyond 2027), continued increases in Venezuelan output could exert greater downward pressure on oil prices.

OPEC+ issued a statement on January 4, stating that eight major member countries will pause production increases through the first quarter of 2026, maintaining output levels from December 2025. The organization did not discuss Venezuela during the online meeting on Sunday, but this production pause implicitly signals a future supply outlook.

US Stocks Mixed, Tech Sector Retreats Significantly

On the first trading day of 2026, US stocks showed increased divergence. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.66%, the S&P 500 increased 0.72%, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite initially surged 1.48% before retreating, ending the day down 0.03%. This high-open, low-close pattern reflects recent profit-taking pressures in the tech sector.

In the bond market, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.19%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating adjustments in future interest rate expectations.

European stocks all rose, with the UK FTSE 100 index surpassing 10,000 points for the first time in history, marking a significant milestone for UK equities. Germany’s DAX 30 and France’s CAC 40 increased by 0.2% and 0.56%, respectively. The China concept index, the Golden Dragon Index, surged 4.38%, performing notably among global markets. The Hang Seng night futures closed at 26,442 points, up 104 points from yesterday’s close.

Industry Trends Frequent, AI and Energy Fields Most Focused

At the corporate level, demand for AI chips remains hot. Industry analysis indicates that Anthropic will directly purchase nearly 1 million Google TPU v7p chips from Broadcom, bypassing traditional procurement channels. Broadcom CEO Chen Fuyang previously confirmed that Anthropic has ordered AI systems worth 21 billion USD from Broadcom. This transaction reflects the urgent demand for computing power in the AI industry and signals a new shift in the semiconductor supply chain.

Energy company ConocoPhillips remains cautious about participating in Venezuela projects. Although Trump stated at a press conference that US major oil companies would be invited to invest in Venezuela’s infrastructure repair, a ConocoPhillips spokesperson said it is too early to make business decisions, and the company is closely monitoring the evolving situation.

Goldman Sachs’ trading division outlined three major thematic trading frameworks for 2026: first, going long on companies that improve productivity through AI; second, shorting consumer discretionary products aimed at low-income groups; third, adopting pair trading strategies—going long on quality AI stocks while shorting vulnerable AI stocks. This framework reflects the market’s transition from AI infrastructure investment to actual application validation.

Rising Market Volatility Warning, Taiwan Aluminum and Cyclical Stocks Focused

From a valuation perspective, Evercore ISI pointed out that the S&P 500 index rose 16.4% cumulatively in 2025, with three consecutive years of over 10% annual gains, and a total increase of 78% over the past three years. Historical data shows that only nine times has the index gained over 10% for three consecutive years, with an average next-year gain of only 4.6%, and five of these years saw declines. Based on this, strategist Julian Emanuel judges that when the market has fully priced in positive factors, the probability of a pullback increases, and volatility is expected to rise significantly.

Under this expectation, investors are re-evaluating cyclical sectors. Taiwan aluminum concept stocks are gaining renewed attention due to potential supply chain restructuring caused by geopolitical changes, as these traditional cyclical stocks often offer unique trading opportunities in high-volatility environments.

Key Data and Events Today

Market will closely watch key economic indicators including China’s December RatingDog Services PMI, Switzerland’s November actual retail sales year-over-year, Eurozone’s January Sentix Investor Confidence Index, and US December ISM Manufacturing PMI. Additionally, the United Nations Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the current situation, and its resolution may further influence market expectations.