The Year 2026 of Asset Class Segmentation: Bitcoin Soars, Gold Turns Bullish as the Thai Economy Faces Blood Shortage

The financial markets are currently showing four key signals indicating a major transition: the expansion of alternative assets, conflicts in monetary policy, the plateau or decline of regional economic strength, and the emergence of more complex economic equations.

Alternative Assets Enter a New Phase: Why Bitcoin and Gold Outperform

2026 is a year of liberation for assets that institutional investors see as “hedges” against systemic instability. Bitcoin, currently trading at $96.91K, is entering the Post-Halving Expansion phase, with key indicators such as the lowest reserves in exchange markets (the lowest since 2018).

This supply shortage creates a Supply Shock pressure that could push prices up to $150,000 - $200,000, according to Bull Case forecasts, if institutional buying continues to flow in. Meanwhile, gold is increasing its role as a De-Dollarization tool for central banks worldwide, boosting its price toward targets of $4,800 - $5,000 per ounce.

The supporting factors for both assets stem from geopolitical conflicts and shrinking production (less gold mining), creating opportunities for those who understand market structures, including high-level derivatives markets used as risk management tools.

Fed Policy on the Agenda: Internal FOMC Conflicts Plant Dangerous Seeds for the Market

Within the FOMC meeting, there is a divergence of opinions. After cutting rates to 3.50% - 3.75% at the last meeting, hawkish (hawk) members insisted on stopping easing, while dovish (dove) members pushed for another cut.

The risk lies in the differing market expectations (cut rates twice in 2026) versus signals from the Fed Dot Plot (only one cut). This scenario could turn into a “Black Swan” event in May 2026, when Jerome Powell’s decision-making authority ends, and in the absence of clear policy direction, markets could become highly volatile.

US Economy Is Strong, But Hidden Suffering Lies in Services Inflation

The US is among the best-positioned countries in the G7, with GDP expected to grow around 2.0% - 2.3%, significantly higher than the Eurozone’s projected 1.2%. A slight tremor is the services inflation remaining at 2.4% - 2.7%, above the Fed’s target.

This means that 2026 is not a year of falling prices but a year where the cost of living erodes purchasing power, despite a still-tight labor market. Therefore, the “Soft Landing” that markets are eyeing comes with hidden health costs.

Thai Stocks: Abandon Growth Hopes, Focus on “Cash Cows” with Strong Dividends

The Thai stock market faces a bitter reality: the country is losing its post in ASEAN, with GDP expected to grow only 1.6% - 2.2%, compared to Vietnam’s expansion. Hope for “growth” is no longer justified.

The appropriate strategy is to seek “Cash Cows” stocks offering dividend yields above 5% to generate continuous cash flow, especially in the healthcare (Healthcare) and Data Center (Data Center) sectors, which still attract foreign investment.

Conversely, sectors to avoid to protect the portfolio include commercial banks and automotive companies, which face risks of technological disruption and carry massive bad debt burdens. The Thai stock market is thus returning to a “Value Trap” filled with warning signs such as an aging population and rising personal debt.

Smart investors will therefore consider reallocating assets to stronger markets, taking time to understand the nature of each asset and the right timing.