First trading day after Golden Week: cryptocurrencies lead the rally, US dollar remains strong, commodities under pressure

The first trading week of the new year (January 5) shows a diversified market trend, with cryptocurrencies performing remarkably well. Bitcoin hit a recent high of $96.91K, up 1.95% within 24 hours; Ethereum also strengthened to $3.36K, rising 2.19% in 24 hours. Both major mainstream coins have recorded four consecutive days of gains, boosting market risk sentiment.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index broke through 98.43, reaching a two-week high, while traditional safe-haven asset gold defied the trend, rising to a peak of $4372.6, up nearly 1%. The oil market remains under pressure, with WTI crude oil falling to $57.33 per barrel, hitting a two-week low. The market presents a rare scenario of “risk assets and safe-haven assets coexisting.”

Performance of Diversified Assets Amid Geopolitical Risks

Venezuela’s political upheaval has become a global market focus. On Saturday (January 3), U.S. military launched a swift operation against the country, arresting former leader Maduro. The Supreme Court of Venezuela immediately ordered Vice President and Oil Minister Rodriguez to serve as acting president but did not declare the president absent, implying no major elections within 30 days.

On Sunday (January 4), Trump issued a warning to Rodriguez, stating that if “correct actions are not taken,” the cost will surpass Maduro’s. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken said that America’s strategic goal is not Venezuela’s oil but to prevent competitors from expanding influence in the Western Hemisphere.

This geopolitical escalation has triggered market divergence. Investment veteran El-Erian pointed out that the economic and financial impacts remain uncertain, and it is expected that oil and gold prices may decouple—oil pressured by increased Venezuela production expectations, while gold attracts safe-haven capital due to heightened uncertainty.

Stock and Commodity Market Overview

U.S. stocks opened mixed; Dow Jones rose 0.66%, S&P 500 increased 0.72%, while tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 0.03%. Chinese concept stocks led the rally, with the Golden Dragon Index surging 4.38%.

European stocks all gained, with the Stoxx 600 reaching a record high, including the UK FTSE 100 breaking the 10,000-point mark for the first time. Germany DAX 30 and France CAC 40 increased by 0.2% and 0.56%, respectively.

In commodities, gold is at $4331.5 per ounce, up 0.32%; WTI crude oil fell 0.14% to $57.33 per barrel; the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.19%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day.

Latest Attitudes of Goldman Sachs and OPEC+

Goldman Sachs analysts stated that U.S. intervention could boost Venezuela’s oil output, but growth is limited by infrastructure damage and insufficient incentives. The firm maintains its forecast of Brent crude at $56 per barrel and WTI at $52 for 2026, but sees significant downside risks for oil prices in 2027 and beyond.

OPEC+ announced on January 4th to pause production increases in the first quarter, maintaining the same output level as December 2025. The eight major oil-producing countries did not discuss Venezuela’s situation at the meeting, with the next meeting scheduled for February 1.

Goldman Sachs’ trading team also released three major U.S. stock trading themes for 2026: long AI productivity enhancement companies, short low-end consumer stocks, and pair trading between AI leaders and vulnerable AI targets.

Latest Developments in Tech and Energy Companies

Anthropic reached a significant partnership with Broadcom, purchasing nearly 1 million TPU v7p AI chips for deployment in their own data centers, bypassing Google’s intermediaries. Broadcom CEO Fuyang Chen previously confirmed that Anthropic has issued AI system orders totaling $21 billion.

U.S. oil giant ConocoPhillips remains cautious about participating in Venezuela’s oil production projects. A spokesperson said it is “too early” to speculate on commercial activities but is closely monitoring the regional situation and its potential impact on global energy supply.

Hong Kong Stocks and Forex Overview

Hong Kong Hang Seng Night Futures closed at 26,442 points, up 13 points from yesterday’s close, with a high watermark of 104 points, and a volume of 16,293 contracts; China Enterprises Index futures are 35 points higher than yesterday. USD/JPY rose 0.1%, EUR/USD fell 0.22%, and the US Dollar Index stands at 98.43, up 0.16%.

Analysts believe that, amid the reopening of global markets after the Golden Week, rising geopolitical risks, and cryptocurrency rebound, investors should closely monitor U.S. stock volatility expectations and policy directions. Evercore ISI warns that after three consecutive years of over 10% gains, the average next-year increase is only 4.6%, and the risk of increased volatility should not be underestimated.