Precious metals halt their decline and rebound, geopolitical tensions trigger a risk-off wave, while crude oil is trapped in a "quantum superposition state"

Geopolitical risks suddenly escalate, and market risk aversion sentiment erupts. On January 5th, a trading day, precious metals performed remarkably—gold surged nearly 2%, stabilizing above $4,400 per ounce, while silver’s astonishing increase exceeded 4%, reaching over $76 per ounce. In contrast, oil’s performance appears more uncertain, with WTI slightly down by 0.09% around $57.27 per barrel, and Brent modestly up by 0.05% to $60.82 per barrel—this “one up, one down” situation precisely reflects the current market’s uncertainty about future trends.

Trigger Point: Risk Aversion Driven by Venezuela Situation

On January 3rd, U.S. military forces launched a military operation abroad, arresting Venezuelan leader Maduro. This sudden event instantly triggered risk awareness among global investors. Safe-haven funds flooded into traditional safe assets, making gold and silver the winners of this wave. According to recent analysis, the momentum of short-term safe-haven capital inflows is expected to continue pushing up precious metal prices.

However, it is important to note that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will undergo its annual rebalancing from January 8th to 14th, during which passive fund selling could disrupt gold and silver prices.

“Diverse Futures” for Gold Trends

Institutional outlooks on gold are showing clear divergence, seemingly falling into a “quantum superposition”—there is both potential for decline and room for rise.

Peter Taylor, Head of Commodities Strategy at Macquarie Group, believes that gold prices are gradually moving away from fundamentals and are increasingly driven by investment sentiment, making price movements more unpredictable. His relatively conservative forecast suggests that by the end of 2026, gold will fall back to $4,200 per ounce, implying a slight correction ahead.

Nicky Shiels, analyst at Swiss precious metals firm MKS Pamp, takes the opposite stance. She emphasizes that the current phase is the early stage of a currency depreciation cycle, and expects gold to rise to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, indicating more than 20% upside potential.

Oil: Multiple Scenarios Under Venezuela Variables

Venezuela possesses the world’s largest proven oil reserves, yet its daily production is less than 1 million barrels, accounting for about 1% of global output. This “resource-rich but powerless” situation creates significant uncertainty about how future policies will impact the oil market.

Goldman Sachs has proposed two forecasts based on different political scenarios:

Optimistic Scenario: If the new government gains U.S. support and obtains full sanctions exemptions, it could import diluents, repair oil wells, and upgrade facilities, potentially increasing daily output by 400,000 barrels before the end of 2026. Under this scenario, Brent crude’s annual average price could fall to $54 per barrel.

Pessimistic Scenario: If Maduro’s camp attempts to maintain control, leading to increased chaos, or if storage limitations cause production halts, output could decrease by 400,000 barrels per day during the same period, pushing Brent’s annual average price up to $58 per barrel.

Based on current information, Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of $56 per barrel for Brent crude and $52 per barrel for WTI crude in 2026. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that global oil supply could enter a record surplus by 2026.

These analyses indicate that the Venezuela event provides a clear upward logic for precious metals, but its impact on oil prices is constrained by various political variables, making the short-term direction uncertain.