2026 Yearly Gold Price Trends and Market Outlook: Gold Price Analysis Investors Need to Know

Last year, gold prices experienced a remarkable increase, with demand for safe assets concentrated as economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions intensified. This trend is likely to continue this year, but some analyses suggest that adjustments may occur depending on the pace of economic recovery. In this article, we will examine the current gold price status and the annual trends in gold prices, analyze the key factors influencing gold prices, and present market outlooks for 2026.

Domestic and International Gold Price Status and Yearly Trends

First, let’s assess the current situation of domestic and international gold prices as of January 13. Domestic gold prices are based on the Korean Gold Exchange, at 3.75g per 1 don(, and international gold prices are based on the price per ounce in USD)XAU/USD(.

The domestic gold price stands at 952,000 KRW per don, which shows a significant increase compared to 541,000 KRW on the same date last year. Looking at the Korean Gold Exchange chart, gold prices have maintained an upward trend for most of the period, confirming that this is a sustained rise rather than a short-term fluctuation.

In the international market, gold is priced at approximately $4,585 per ounce, representing an increase of about 5.85% since the beginning of the year and approximately 37.97% compared to six months ago. This rate of increase before February is considered quite steep.

Major Factors Influencing Gold Price Fluctuations

Domestic gold prices and international gold prices tend to move similarly. Therefore, predicting the trend of gold prices over the years requires a comprehensive consideration of various global factors affecting gold.

) Expansion of De-dollarization Trend

De-dollarization refers to efforts to reduce dependence on the US dollar in international transactions, through increased use of alternative currencies or holding physical assets like gold. The background of such policies includes the goal of strengthening economic sovereignty.

China is expanding the international use of the yuan, increasing its share in trade transactions with various countries, and lowering dollar dependence through currency swaps. India is also gradually increasing the use of the rupee in trade payments with its partners.

The US’s intention to avoid or ease economic sanctions also contributes to de-dollarization. Countries under sanctions are working to reduce dollar reliance through alternative currencies or gold. This expansion of de-dollarization could weaken the dollar’s international standing and is likely to increase demand for gold, serving as a key driver of rising gold prices.

Deepening of International Geopolitical Tensions

There is a strong correlation between global geopolitical instability and gold prices. Gold is a typical safe-haven asset, with demand surging whenever international tensions escalate.

Historical examples include the spike in gold prices during the 2008 global financial crisis amid fears of systemic collapse, the surge in gold purchases during the 2011 European debt crisis due to safe-haven demand, and the record high prices during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic amid unprecedented global economic uncertainty.

Currently, international political issues such as US-China trade conflicts, Russia-Ukraine disputes, and Middle Eastern conflicts are negatively impacting the global economy, supporting the current upward trend in gold prices.

Concerns over Recession in Developed Countries

The potential economic downturn in major developed nations also supports gold prices. Gold tends to increase in demand as a safe asset during periods of heightened economic instability, with interest in gold rising as recession signals grow stronger.

Central Bank Rate Cuts

There is a close relationship between central bank interest rate policies and gold prices. When interest rates are cut, the attractiveness of interest-bearing assets like deposits or bonds diminishes, reducing opportunity costs of holding gold. This can lead to increased demand for gold.

Additionally, rate cuts are generally implemented during economic downturns or recession fears, which markets interpret as signals of high economic uncertainty. As a result, investment funds tend to shift from other assets to the safe-haven asset, gold.

2026 Yearly Gold Price Outlook and Market Analysis

Expert Predictions and Market Scenarios

Most international financial experts and analysts expect gold prices to continue rising through 2026.

JP Morgan forecasts that spot gold prices could reach around $5,055 per ounce by the end of 2026, while Goldman Sachs sees room for further gains into mid-2026. HSBC suggests the possibility of reaching $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026 but warns of increased volatility.

Synthesizing analyses from various institutions, it is highly likely that gold prices will maintain an upward trend throughout the first half of 2026. However, some experts suggest potential corrections in the second half, so prudent risk management strategies are recommended for investors.

Investor Precautions

Considering the annual trend of gold prices, gold can offer long-term positive investment opportunities, but managing positions to prepare for short-term volatility is crucial. As global economic conditions improve, downward adjustments may occur, so it is advisable to follow sound investment principles such as dollar-cost averaging and setting stop-loss orders.