CFTC's new chairman takes office, ushering in a new era for cryptocurrency and prediction market regulation

【CryptoWorld】The new chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Michael Selig, officially took office recently, coinciding with a sensitive period—under dual pressures of expanding regulatory authority over digital assets and the wild growth of prediction markets.

Currently, prediction market platforms like Kalshi derive over 90% of their trading volume from sports event betting. What does this reflect? It indicates how popular this sector could become once policies permit it. However, the key issue is that the CFTC’s stance on whether to regulate prediction markets remains unclear.

Selig’s previous attitude was against excessive restrictions on sports betting, which sounds like a positive signal. But he faces a tough situation—entangled in court lawsuits, internal personnel restructuring, and resource constraints—all of which need to be addressed one by one. Additionally, new regulatory frameworks need to be developed for digital assets, and future policies for prediction markets must be evaluated, creating a mountain of challenges.

Industry insiders generally expect that the CFTC will place greater emphasis on protecting retail traders’ rights in the future, and will adopt a more cautious approach toward policies on cryptocurrencies and prediction markets. In essence, it’s about balancing innovation and risk control—neither stifling emerging markets nor letting them run unchecked. Where this balance will be struck depends on how Selig chooses to proceed next.