#Strategy加仓BTC $Bitcoin $ZEN $DASH

The suspense surrounding Powell's leadership at the Federal Reserve suddenly changed—this time, it's really different.

Polymarket's latest data shattered previous expectations: the probability of him leaving office before the end of May dropped from 74% to 45%, and the chance of leaving before the end of the year also decreased from 85% to 62%. It seems that staying on until 2028 is no longer just a dream.

Even more interesting is the shift in the succession landscape. The previously most prominent Trump ally, Hasset, has been overtaken by former Fed Governor Waller. What does this scene suggest—perhaps the legendary "potential agreement" between Trump and Powell has quietly broken down.

Why did the reversal happen suddenly? Several key points are worth pondering.

First, Powell's "wait-and-see" strategy has worked. He has maintained silence on whether to leave, yet holds the leverage of remaining until 2028—this non-commitment actually strengthens his bargaining position. Second, investigations against him ultimately failed to shake his position and instead reinforced the Fed's internal commitment to independence. Third, the market is voting with its feet—no matter how strong the political winds, they can't match the value of a professional and predictable "monetary policy gatekeeper."

What does this mean for the crypto world? Simply put, it's a contest over the pace of rate cuts. Trump wants to cut rates quickly and stimulate aggressively, while an independent Fed more believes in "data-driven" decisions.

If Powell truly continues to lead, rate cuts may become more steady and cautious, and policies are less likely to change abruptly. In the long run, the broad direction of liquidity easing won't change, but the specific path will become clearer and more predictable—this is actually good for market pricing.

The market has quietly made its choice: certainty above all.