#数字资产市场动态 🚨 Sudden Reversal! The Big Turnaround in the Federal Reserve Leadership Power Play 🔥

Recent forecast data has revealed a big surprise—the probability of Powell remaining in the Federal Reserve until 2028 has suddenly surged, and the entire market's pricing logic has been rewritten overnight.

📊 The data comparison is a bit outrageous
According to the latest betting data from Polymarket:
• The probability of stepping down before the end of May dropped from 74% directly to 45%
• The chance of leaving office before the end of the year plummeted from 85% to 62%

This is not a minor adjustment; it’s a clear shift in market confidence.

🔀 The succession landscape has reversed
Previously favored candidate Haskett (an ally of Trump) has now been pushed down, with former Fed Governor Waller gaining more support. What does this imply? The legendary "consensus" between Trump and Powell might not be as solid as it seems.

💭 Why has this shift happened?

First, Powell is playing his cards perfectly—never explicitly stating whether he will stay or leave, holding the rule of the game tightly. Quietly controlling the rhythm is the mark of a master.

Second, investigations targeting him have actually helped a lot. Although superficially about scrutinizing him, they have instead strengthened the market and internal Fed consensus on central bank independence. This support unexpectedly became his shield.

Third, the market has voted with real money. No matter how strong the political winds, they cannot surpass a monetary policy manager who is understandable and predictable. That’s the value of professionalism.

⚡ What does this mean for the crypto world?

The core issue is: will the pace of rate cuts be fast or slow in the future? Trump wants significant rate cuts to stimulate the economy vigorously, while an independent Fed more trusts the "data-driven" approach.

If Powell stays, the pace of rate cuts will be more steady and cautious—no more aggressive, abrupt turns. The impact on liquidity expectations is: the long-term easing trend remains unchanged, but the short-term policy path will be clearer and more predictable.

🎯 Simply put: the market has chosen "certainty," and this game of central bank power is far from over.