Today I want to discuss a question that many traders are concerned about—why does the US Initial Jobless Claims number always seem to move the crypto market?

The logical chain isn't complicated: Initial Jobless Claims data reflect the strength of the labor market → this directly influences the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates → and Fed policy determines USD liquidity → ultimately affecting the rise and fall of risk assets (including Ethereum, Bitcoin).

**The market reactions to three different data outcomes vary significantly:**

If the reported value is below 215,000 (the expected value), it indicates that the employment market is still relatively tight, and the Fed is inclined to maintain high interest rates, which will strengthen the dollar. At this point, risk appetite tends to decline, and Ethereum may face short-term pressure, with previous support levels being closely watched.

Conversely, if the reported value exceeds 215,000, it suggests signs of a weakening labor market, and expectations for rate cuts will increase, leading to looser liquidity and easier capital inflow into the crypto market. Ethereum will receive short-term support and may attempt to break through resistance levels.

The third scenario—data meeting expectations—means monetary policy expectations remain largely unchanged. Ethereum's price movement in this case is more influenced by its fundamentals, such as DeFi protocol lock-up volumes and on-chain activity. The market usually moves sideways, with volatility significantly reduced.

**A few additional factors to watch out for:**

Timing is critical. During the overlap of the European and US trading hours at 21:30, trading volume surges, and volatility can increase sharply. If there is a conflict between Federal Reserve officials' speeches and the data signals, Ethereum can easily reverse direction, which can cause emotional trading and confusion.

Also, pay attention to Ethereum's own catalysts—such as Layer 2 upgrades and institutional capital inflows—that can offset the negative impact of weak jobless claims data. However, if there are large token unlocks or regulatory risks at the same time, the downside may be amplified.

Market movements are very fast; specific trading strategies should be adjusted based on real-time market conditions, rather than rigidly following a fixed plan.