Around 8:30 PM tonight, Ethereum fluctuated 0.43% within 1 hour, dropping from 3354 to 3346, triggering a consolidation pattern alert. Let's analyze the logic behind this consolidation and the potential risks ahead.

The recent analysis conclusions remain unchanged—neutral leaning bullish. Below 3330 is considered a high-level consolidation zone. Two hours ago, it surged to 3368 and then pulled back, now entering a narrow-range consolidation on the hourly chart. The overall trend remains intact; this pullback appears to be a pause during the upward movement.

From a technical perspective, the structure is still stable. The daily ADX soared to 45.0, indicating a strong trend, with bulls in full control (+DI at 29.0 outpacing -DI at 11.0 by a significant margin). The market liquidity also looks healthy, with daily OBV continuously inflowing at 139%, CMF showing a strong inflow at 0.126, and MFI sitting at a bullish 64. These details confirm that long-term funds are optimistic.

The 4-hour chart is similarly strong, with ADX at 33.2, OBV and CMF both indicating inflow, but MFI has risen to 82—this is a warning sign. The short-term is already extremely overbought. Looking at the 1-hour chart, ADX is only 21.5, and CMF has turned to -0.104 outflow, indicating profit-taking pressure. Combining multiple timeframes, the consensus score is 80%, and the bullish trend is still active.

Regarding overall liquidity, buy and sell orders are roughly balanced, with buy orders at 54.3% and sell orders at 45.7%. A closer look reveals interesting details—some top exchanges and Gate have more buy orders, but one exchange shows concentrated sell orders. This suggests no overwhelming one-sided force and reminds us not to be fooled by surface data from any single exchange. The current market signals are neutral to slightly bullish, with good liquidity and a normal trading environment.

Position-wise, the current price is in a critical zone between 3299 and 3347, near the upper boundary—an awkward spot. The daily RSI is at 70.5, already in overbought territory, and the 4-hour RSI is at 71.4, indicating extreme overbought conditions—this is the biggest hidden risk. The market greed index is at 61, indicating heat. Large order flow shows sell orders at 60.6%, suggesting some funds are pulling out in the short term. Coupled with the extreme overbought condition on the 4-hour chart, chasing the high here carries significant risk. It’s better to wait for a pullback or a volume breakout before entering.

How to operate specifically? Since the overall trend is upward but the short-term is overbought, chasing highs is not recommended. Here are three ideas: First, wait for the price to return to support levels around 3299 or 3283 for a low buy, with stronger support at 3234; second, wait for a volume breakout above 3347 and then follow, with targets at 3405 and 3463; third, if you are confident in your risk management, you can test the bullish strength with small positions between 3347-3365, and exit immediately if the level breaks.

Back to position: currently in a relatively high multi-timeframe zone, with an overall score of 80%. Keep a close eye on resistance at 3347 and support at 3299. Below that, 3283 is the first support, and 3234 is a strong support; above, 3347 is the first resistance, with 3405 and 3463 further up. If the price falls below 3299, it may directly test 3283 or even 3234. From the liquidity flow perspective, if buy orders can sustain the daily and 4-hour upward structure, an upward breakout is still possible. However, this is not the worst position nor the best—it's a typical "fish tail" pattern, so caution is advised. The market moves forward in hesitation and ends in euphoria. Currently, with overbought signals and greed sentiment stacking up, the trend is still there, but it’s no longer a time to blindly buy in. Patience for better odds is key.

【Key Position Reference】
Direction: Watchful
Support: 3299 / 3283 / 3234 USDT
Resistance: 3347 / 3405 / 3463 USDT

⚠️ The current trend strength is moderate; consider taking profits early when approaching resistance.
⚠️ Risk reminder: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously based on your own risk tolerance.