Looking at the recent discussions about FOGO, this new Layer1, I want to organize my thoughts on the spot market opening trend.

To be straightforward, I’m not very optimistic about a continuous one-way move. I expect an initial surge, followed by a pullback, and finally a period of divergence and oscillation. Why?

First, with the new generation Layer1 and the debut of spot trading, the opening sentiment is definitely very bullish. Whether it’s genuine confidence in the narrative or purely speculative to catch volatility, everyone will rush in at the first moment. So, a surge at the open is almost certain and is a consensus behavior.

The problem comes afterward. From the data, the circulating supply isn’t small, and the early chip structure isn’t very transparent. Once there’s a noticeable increase in volume at the open, my judgment is that early holders are cashing out profits. This stage is especially prone to the “quick rise and quick fall” drama. If beginners chase the high, their experience will be quite poor.

Honestly, I wouldn’t rush to buy the first candle. My strategy is to wait until the first surge is complete and observe the reaction to the pullback. If the pullback holds above the key trading zone and the volume shrinks accordingly, it indicates genuine funds are interested in trend-following. Conversely, if high volume continues to push down at high levels, I’ll choose to stay on the sidelines—no need to fight it.

In one sentence: watch the sentiment at the open, observe the structure in the middle, and the trend is something that develops later. No FOMO, no missing out.