This wave of BTC market just broke through the key zone of 94,500, and online there are endless cheers of "The new bull market is here." But I’ve been in this circle for 8 years, and I have to be honest: chasing after longs now is really a bit dangerous.

Last night, the US CPI data was released, and the numbers came in below expectations. The market reaction was like being on steroids. Everyone immediately started fantasizing about "the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates early," capital rushing in, and prices being pushed higher. Sounds familiar, right? This kind of situation repeats every month— but the problem is, there’s a huge gap between imagination and reality.

Let me break it down. Check the CME Federal Reserve watch tool, and the actual probability of a rate cut in January is less than 5%. Maintaining the current interest rate is the overwhelmingly expected scenario. In other words, what the market is currently speculating on isn’t fundamentals at all, but pure emotion. How long can this rebound last? Basically, it’s just overextending the future.

The more serious risk lies above. Many people talk about "bull market dreams," but the real threat is the line at 98,000. Those who have been through several rounds know that around that level are piled with historical transaction chips and trapped orders. Simply put, it’s the market’s "fortress." It has been pushed back several times when trying to break through that level before. Do you think it’s easy to break through now? That’s too naive. My judgment is that this rebound will top out around this zone.