BTC is currently at the 98k multiple key level, which indeed is a price point prone to causing disagreements.

From a capital perspective, the situation remains quite hot. Yesterday, the net buy-in of spot CVD exceeded 1,000+, and combined with the ETF inflow of over 800 million dollars, these are solid incremental inflows. But the problem is—sudden sell orders appeared around 98k, and many buy orders were absorbed by the sell orders. This sign indicates that the bullish momentum is encountering pressure.

Why is 98k so critical? From a candlestick perspective, the range between 98k and 99k has two significances. First, it is the level where BTC quickly dipped multiple times before completely breaking below 100,000 on November 14. Second, it is also the consensus bottom formed after October 11. At that time, the price repeatedly touched 99k but did not break down, so a large amount of bottom-fishing capital built positions here. When the price eventually broke through, this level turned into a medium- to long-term trapped zone—a play of support and resistance exchange.

Here's an interesting detail: back when the price was over 80k, how many people shouted that they would all exit once it returned to 98k or 100k? How strong was that consensus? Now, those trapped are under immense pressure to unwind their positions.

Looking at volume distribution, the 98k range after 10.11 is almost a vacuum zone, with very little turnover (that smooth drop from 99k directly to 96k was too easy). This imbalance in trading volume itself hints that a rebalancing is needed here—commonly known as sideways consolidation or range-bound trading—to allow bulls and bears to reach a new consensus and transfer the trapped chips to new buyers.

What will happen next? Honestly, it's hard to judge; everything depends on the temperament of the US market funds. Will the US market continue to exert pressure on Thursday and Friday? That’s the key. Reflecting on yesterday, technically, most thought it would consolidate or retrace, but the US market FOMO kicked in directly, with 800 million in funds (including 600 million from BlackRock alone) pushing the price up forcefully.

As for today’s trading strategy, I still stick to my previous judgment: the rally is aimed at setting up for a bigger drop. Only when it surpasses 100k does the real decline begin. So, the next steps are clear in my mind.