When Inverse Strategy Beats the Pros: 2025's Surprise Winner in the Jim Cramer Stock Picks Today Debate

Market Watchers See Unexpected Turnaround in 2025 Investment Performance

The world of publicly-tracked investor portfolios delivered a surprising twist in 2025. Two figures typically followed closely by market participants—TV personality Jim Cramer and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi—saw their year-end returns tell a fascinating story about contrarian investing.

For decades, stock transactions disclosed by Nancy Pelosi, alongside those of her husband Paul Pelosi, have frequently outpaced broader market indices. Yet 2025 marked a watershed moment. The standout performer wasn’t Cramer’s direct stock recommendations, but rather a contrarian approach: taking positions directly opposite to his televised suggestions.

The Numbers: A Clear Victory for the Contrarian Approach

According to Autopilot’s tracking system, the Inverse Cramer strategy achieved returns of 60% throughout 2025—a dramatic divergence from Pelosi’s 25% gain. UnusualWhales, which monitors congressional stock transactions, reported even wider variances in their analysis, crediting Pelosi with 20.1% returns while ranking her 28th among active congressional traders for the year.

Social media accounts dedicated to tracking these portfolios summarized the outcome bluntly: “The Queen has been dethroned. Inverse Cramer officially beats out Pelosi for the top portfolio on Autopilot.” UnusualWhales observers added, “You just can’t make this up. Cramer’s Inverse portfolio beat Nancy Pelosi’s portfolio in 2025.”

Understanding Jim Cramer’s Stock Picks Today

Jim Cramer maintains a relentless media presence, appearing throughout the trading week on CNBC’s “Mad Money” while dispensing frequent stock opinions across social media platforms. The volume of his recommendations presents a practical challenge for individual investors attempting to track them, which explains why platforms like Autopilot have gained traction.

This phenomenon isn’t entirely new. Tuttle Capital previously launched ETF products in October 2022 designed to track both direct Cramer recommendations and their inverse. However, the direct Cramer-tracking ETF discontinued operations in September 2023, while its inverse counterpart closed in February 2024.

Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital, reflected on the experiment’s conclusion: “We started the fund to highlight the risks of following TV stock pickers—Cramer in particular—and the lack of accountability. Retail investors are more interested in volatile products,” he noted, explaining why the fund ultimately didn’t achieve expected asset levels. Tuttle observed that timing proved crucial, stating, “The success or failure of an ETF often comes down to timing, and the timing with the Magnificent 7 stocks just didn’t work out.”

He compared Cramer’s track record to an old adage: “A broken clock is right twice a day,” acknowledging that Cramer did make successful calls on major tech stocks.

Pelosi’s 2025 Transaction Activity

Nancy Pelosi’s trading activity during 2025 proved notably lighter than previous years. She disclosed a donation of Apple shares to an educational institution and exercised Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ: AVGO) options during June. Additionally, she reported purchasing options across Vistra Corp (NYSE: VST), Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL), and Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) in January.

Given Pelosi’s announcement that she won’t seek re-election in 2026 and plans to exit Congress by January 2027, her publicly-reported stock disclosures will eventually cease.

Current Market Positions for Key Holdings

The stocks featured in these portfolio discussions showed the following valuations:

Broadcom Inc (AVGO): $332.68 (+0.06%) Amazon.com Inc (AMZN): $246.21 (-0.03%) Alphabet Inc (GOOGL): $325.90 (+0.14%) Tempus AI Inc (TEM): $68.73 (+0.54%) Vistra Corp (VST): $151.20 (+0.40%)

The Broader Narrative: Accountability in Financial Commentary

Television personality John Oliver previously examined Cramer’s investment record, critiquing his reversals and less accurate predictions, including controversial early stances on former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried. Oliver’s commentary underscored a broader concern: the gap between media personality recommendations and actual market outcomes.

The 2025 results—where a strategy built on opposing Cramer’s suggestions significantly outperformed both his direct picks and even Pelosi’s historically reliable portfolio—raise important questions about celebrity-driven investment advice and the value of contrarian positioning in navigating equity markets.