Tom Lee's forecast for 2026: The beginning of the year looks promising, but beware of the mid-year crisis

Market strategist Tom Lee recently shared his vision in a televised interview, presenting a fascinating yet volatile outlook for global markets this year. According to his analysis, a synchronized bullish move encompassing stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies by early 2026 historically signals a great opportunity for both retail and institutional investors.

An Emotional Rollercoaster Year

Tom Lee characterizes 2026 as a year that will follow the pattern of “euphoria, panic, and resurgence” experienced in 2025. This dynamic suggests that although the start will be positive, there will be moments that seem like genuine market crises. However, contrary to what many might think, these corrections will not mark the end of the bullish cycle but will be strategic re-entry opportunities for investors with nerves of steel.

The Mid-Year Challenge

The main threat will come when financial markets test the new Federal Reserve administration’s policy. In this scenario, Tom Lee anticipates possible declines between 15% and 20%, especially during the second half of the year. This adjustment will be particularly notable in the second half of 2026, when economic uncertainty could reach its peak.

Long-Term Goal

Despite these predictable turbulences, the analyst maintains an optimistic outlook on the S&P 500, forecasting it could reach 7700 points before the year-end. This implies that, regardless of intermediate fluctuations, the overall trend will remain upward, rewarding those who hold their positions during periods of volatility.