If the Federal Reserve continues to expand its balance sheet, lower mortgage rates, release banking credit space, and increase defense military spending, USD liquidity will enter a new expansion cycle. Market signs already indicate that in a tightening environment in 2025, Bitcoin will have a cumulative decline of 14%, while gold has unexpectedly risen by 44% during the same period—this divergence precisely reflects the fragility of risk assets during liquidity shortages. Once the above expansion policies are implemented successively, Bitcoin is expected to break through its historical high in 2026, re-establishing itself as the preferred asset for hedging inflation and excess liquidity. The key lies in observing the Federal Reserve's actual operational pace and the willingness of the banking system to lend.