Recently, the Bank of Japan's policy narrative has reversed. The new Prime Minister immediately called for maintaining low interest rates, and the market's previously expected continuous rate hike plan may be temporarily halted.

Here's a brief overview of the situation: political intervention has directly involved itself in monetary policy. According to statistics, over 75% of market experts believe that although raising interest rates is the long-term trend, the next rate hike is likely to be delayed until after July of this year. The central bank also stated that it needs to enter an "observation period" to assess the actual impact of the previous rate hike on the economy.

What does this mean? There are two key variables to watch:

First is the direction of the Japanese Yen. The delay in rate hikes directly dampens the Yen's appreciation expectations. The interest rate differential advantage of USD/JPY will continue to exist, which is a positive signal for shorting the Yen. More importantly, those carry trade arbitrage transactions relying on the Yen's low interest rate environment have gained a new operational window. The market is essentially supplied with a period of cheap liquidity fuel again.

Second is the timing game. The meeting on January 23 can largely be ignored, as the real turning point is in July. By that time, will the Bank of Japan be able to withstand political pressure and proceed with rate hikes, or will it choose to continue dovish policies? This decision will directly determine the long-term trend of the Yen and will also influence the liquidity landscape of the global crypto market.

The question now facing the central bank is: should it坚持政策独立性硬刚到底, or bow to political forces? The global markets are waiting for this answer. Do you think the central bank will compromise in July or unexpectedly hike rates?