Regulatory heat fails to cool prediction markets as daily volume hits $702M record

Trading platforms tied to prediction markets are starting 2026 with record activity, even as regulators intensify their focus on the sector.

Record daily volume of $702M kicks off 2026

Prediction-focused platforms ended 2025 on a sharp uptrend and carried that momentum into 2026. According to Dune Analytics, combined trading activity across major venues recently jumped to about $702M in a single day, marking a new all time high for the niche.

Data shows prediction market volume has been rising quickly since late 2025. Kalshi drove most of the action, handling roughly two thirds of total trades, while Polymarket and Opinion also saw heavy usage during the same period.

On Monday, total trading volume reached a fresh ATH of $700M, underscoring how interest continues to accelerate. Moreover, figures shared by analyst Jonaso on January 15, 2026 highlighted that Kalshi generated $460M that day, securing 66.4% of the market.

Meanwhile, Polymarket, Opinion and @trylimitless each captured close to a 14% share, indicating that liquidity is spreading beyond a single venue. However, the leadership position of Kalshi remains clear based on its reported trading dominance.

How prediction markets are evolving in crypto

These on chain venues allow users to trade contracts tied to the outcome of real world events, including elections, macroeconomic data and sports. Over recent months, they have emerged as one of crypto‘s fastest growing applications, supported by rising on chain volumes and user participation.

Moreover, large crypto companies have started to engage with this trend. Coinbase and Gemini are reportedly exploring integrations that would surface event based markets to their customers, while wallet providers such as MetaMask are adding interfaces that give users direct access.

This expansion has helped push leading firms in the space to multi billion dollar valuations, as capital flows into infrastructure and liquidity. That said, the prediction markets narrative is increasingly colliding with regulatory debates that could shape how these platforms operate in the coming years.

For many users, one of the key attractions of prediction markets is the ability to express views on politics, finance and culture using relatively small stakes. However, that same breadth of topics has drawn closer attention from policymakers worried about gambling, market integrity and potential insider trading.

Regulatory scrutiny intensifies on event based trading

Regulators worldwide are now paying closer attention to prediction markets regulation, even as trading volumes climb. A recent high profile position on Polymarket triggered concerns that the trader might have relied on non public information, prompting fresh calls for oversight.

Lawmakers in several US states are reviewing whether certain contracts tied to politics, sports or financial assets should face restrictions or outright bans. Moreover, some jurisdictions are questioning whether existing gambling or securities rules already cover these types of event based markets.

States such as New York and New Jersey have previously attempted to limit access to specific platforms, arguing that the products look similar to unlicensed wagering. In response, operators have pushed back in court, arguing their contracts provide information markets rather than pure gambling products.

This week, the legal battle produced a notable development. A federal judge in Tennessee paused state level action against Kalshi, giving the company temporary relief as it contests the enforcement effort. However, the underlying questions about classification and jurisdiction remain unresolved.

Global pushback and resilient user demand

Outside the United States, authorities have also started to react. Late last year, Ukraine moved to block local access to Polymarket, explicitly framing these services as a form of gambling that should not be available to residents.

Even with these policy headwinds, trading data indicates that users have not stepped back in a meaningful way. Moreover, the recent $702M record day suggests that appetite for event based speculation and hedging remains robust despite mounting regulatory uncertainty.

For now, platforms are trying to balance growth with compliance while investors track both trading metrics and legal developments. In summary, the sector’s trajectory will likely depend on how courts and regulators ultimately define these markets and whether stricter rules impact liquidity over time.